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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:27 pm 
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kearly wrote:
Sarlacc83 wrote:
kearly wrote:
I mean this as a serious question, is Oregon's offense really that much better than UW's right now? Because UW is nearly the top offense in the country, and they've played (IMO) a much tougher defensive schedule than Oregon has to this point.

I think Oregon's offense is better, but I think it's very close. I think UW's defense is better, but it's close. The game is at Washington with that new stadium that can get pretty loud. UW could have, and arguably should have, beaten Stanford in their house last week. Stanford won, but I honestly came away from that game feeling that UW was the better team.

I think this game is almost a coinflip. I think if they played 100 times Oregon wins just a little over 50 of them. I don't get where the blowout predictions are coming from. UW is a much tougher and better team than I think some people here realize.

UW has done very well this season against hurry up offenses. Obviously, Oregon's is the gold standard, but I'd be surprised if they broke 50.

Oregon: 42
UW: 43

Also, I don't think this is necessarily Oregon's best season. They haven't played anyone yet. Those other Oregon teams destroyed inferior competition every bit as the the current team is.


Oregon fans are confident about this game because our team beat the crap out of a good Tennessee team (the one that took #6 Georgia to OT). I also think that the Huskies are overestimating their abilities because they played a bunch of nobodies (including an over-ranked Boise St. team and a middling Illinois team) just like you're saying Oregon did. That point doesn't fall in your favor because when the Huskies played a somebody, they lost.

Another reference point (the only one I can bring up for apples to apples comparison) is that Stanford scored 31 points on Washington (sort of) whereas a 'worse' Ducks defense held them to 17 points last year. I'm confident the UO defense is much better this year (possibly better than Stanford's D even), and I'm not sold that your defense will be successful against the blur.

I do agree that the homefield advantage will play into the final score, but I'm not worried that it's the deciding factor. The imitation isn't beating the original. This isn't an Oreo/Hydrox situation. This will be an Oregon win.


Boise State was a ranked opponent, and are a better team than you give credit for. The final score did not indicate the way the game was played. They beat UW in the trenches more than Stanford did.

You don't think one of the nations higher ranked defenses can hold Oregon to 42 points at home?

Tennessee isn't a good football team. That game was in Oregon too, across the country. Who didn't expect a pasting there? I like Georgia, but they have been erratic week to week for years. Sometimes they are giant killers. Sometimes they lose to teams they have no business losing to. I like them. But they make for a poor measuring stick. Especially if we're talking about a measuring stick for a measuring stick, which is flawed logic to begin with.

The Huskies scored 28 points and racked up around 500 yards at Stanford. They lost, because of special teams and officiating. You watched the game, right? Them losing does not change how eye opening the performance was.

I hope that didn't read too hostile. Apologies if it did. Also, thanks for having my back a few posts up.



I think what you've said is totally fair.

1) I didn't have the time to watch the UW - Stanford game hence the 'sort of' comment. I understand the Huskies played well, and I also know it took a few special teams gaffes. But since the Ducks consider special teams integral and they have just as much speed on ST as Stanford does (if not more) where they can get 7 easy points, don't you think that's going to hurt UW? Also, what if UW just matches up really well with Stanford like last year but they don't matchup well with Oregon like last year? That, too, is in the back of my mind. Maybe they played the game of their lives like Tennessee did against Georgia. ;)

2) I don't what else I can use for a measuring stick right now as the two haven't played a common opponent. I do have to make some educated guesses for better or worse. I mean, I did expect a pasting of Tennessee, but I didn't expect it to be almost 40 points. I think you have to be fair and give them credit for that because it's not like they played Nicholls State a second time. Yes, there are matchups issues as mentioned in 1, but I did cite it as a reason to be excited, didn't I? I didn't make it a guarantee of victory but I think that, besides, Stanford, the 'preseason' schedules weren't that disparate.

3) I don't expect the UW D to hold down the Oregon offense. Why would I? Innocent until proven guilty. :th2thumbs:

4) I hate Boise State so my opinion on them is always dour, but I don't put stock in pre-season rankings because they're really just guesses (and in BSU's state, based on previous successes). Petersen's a pretty good defensive coach, but I don't consider them half as talented now as they were in the Kellen Moore years on the offensive side of the ball, so holding them to 6 points doesn't impress me. Maybe I'm wrong there. Obviously the LoS is a big deal tomorrow.

5) I don't think UW is a pushover. Maybe my opinion of Oregon will get dashed tomorrow. I, and a lot of other Ducks fans, think they're better than they were during the 12-1 season. Obviously it's a big measuring stick for us. I, reasonably or unreasonably, think you're underestimating them.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:33 pm 
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I think Tennessee at home is probably an easier win than Illinois was on the road. I think Oregon is a great team, but they haven't been tested at all this season. By contrast, UW has only had one game where they could legitimately feel like a win was guaranteed. IMO, UW has played 3 opponents tougher than Oregon's toughest: Stanford, Boise St., and Arizona. With an improved Illinois on the road being debatable.

I think Oregon is the same team they were last year, when they were the 2nd best team in the nation in the eyes of many. Is that underestimating them? I think Oregon is a National championship contender. And I think UW is 90% as good as of this moment.

FWIW I think UW falls back to earth in a big way after this season when they have to replace Price. I'm not a big believer in Miles based on what I've seen so far. But right now? Top to bottom, they are legit. And I haven't said that about a Husky team in over 10 years.


Last edited by kearly on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:37 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:38 pm 
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I'm not going to argue that Oregon's had it easier so far, but that's more because of the Pac 12 schedule if you're going to bring those teams into the equation. The schedule doesn't determine how good a team is though, and you don't win any moral points for having a tougher schedule (in this argument. I mean, naturally the computers will like your team better.). It's probably nicer because you can play catch up later, though.

Also, let's remember that Oregon is a fast starter and then falters in November.

Edit: I saw your second edit, and I don't understand your math if you think the game is a coin flip but Oregon is 11% better. Do you feel the new stadium is that good to make up the difference?

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Last edited by Sarlacc83 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:41 pm 
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The schedule is as a point of reference to statistical performance. So if you are going to say Oregon is better because of the stats, it would be silly to not consider the context of those performances.

Also, until a team plays somebody you really can't gauge how truly good of a football team they are. Oregon always rolls bad teams, but has struggled against very high ranked opponents. I'm not saying that they are frauds, I think it's only natural to struggle against tough teams, but I think if we are looking at a body of evidence full of cupcake games, there really isn't anything in that data that tells us how well Oregon will play against top competition in 2013.

I think you are operating under the perception that this is the same UW team from the last few years. It isn't. They are definitely copying Oregon, but that doesn't mean they can't win. This figures to be a tight game, and if Thomas is out, I'd feel very confident favoring Washington.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:51 pm 
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kearly wrote:
The schedule is as a point of reference to statistical performance. So if you are going to say Oregon is better because of the stats, it would be silly to not consider the context of those performances.

Also, until a team plays somebody you really can't gauge how truly good of a football team they are. Oregon always rolls bad teams, but has struggled against very high ranked opponents. I'm not saying that they are frauds, I think it's only natural to struggle against tough teams, but I think if we are looking at a body of evidence full of cupcake games, there really isn't anything in that data that tells us how well Oregon will play against top competition in 2013.

I think you are operating under the perception that this is the same UW team from the last few years. It isn't. They are definitely copying Oregon, but that doesn't mean they can't win. This figures to be a tight game, and if Thomas is out, I'd feel very confident favoring Washington.


I don't think this is the same UW team as year's past, and I'm not sure why you get that opinion. I know they're good. I just happen to think you're talking up their opponents (other than Stanford) more than you really should be allowed. I don't think there's a huge gap between Illinois and Arizona and Tennessee/Virginia as they're all kind of middling teams when it comes to non-conference and I think Boise State should've never been ranked though they're a dangerous team. However, even then, none of these teams can tell us much because they're either not a spread offense or not a good one.

Finally: You see your team through your lens and I see Oregon through mine. Which is really OK. I think that Oregon is far superior to what they were last year because of the defensive improvement and growth in our WR corps. I think the defensive line is MUCH better and the offensive line is also made advancements. We'll see if I'm right at 1PM.

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Last edited by Sarlacc83 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:53 pm 
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Dave Bartoo, a regular guest on 1080 The Fan down here in Portland that runs a college football betting system called the college football matrix, says his system has Washington covering and winning this game. This is the same guy that said 2-3 months before the season that Oregon State would upset Wisconsin last year. He's been right a lot, and he's actually a Ducks fan.

I think the game will be close, but the thing that doesn't worry me is that there's been a clear way to beat Oregon the past 2-3-4 years, and that's to slow the game down, dominate the trenches, burn the clock by running the ball on Oregon and force Oregon to have to beat you with the pass. It has taken teams like Ohio State, Stanford, LSU and Auburn to do this. Washington isn't on that level when it comes to owning the trenches, and I've yet to see a team come close to beating Oregon when they try to beat Oregon at their own game.

This game for Oregon is ultimately going to come down to Mariota and the receivers vs the Washington secondary. Wilcox likes to stack the box with 8 to stop the run. It worked very well against Stanford because Stanford isn't very explosive on the outside. That obviously isn't the case with Oregon. I'm sure Hefrich and Mariota are ready for this. Then to come back to the running game, I still have visions of Ka'Deem Carey running through tackles vs Washington and picking up 132 yards on the day, with the QB Denker rushing for 56 yards as well. I have to believe Oregon will be able to do the same thing.

I'll predict 45-28, with Oregon pulling away in the 4th. Mariota is the best player on the field and Wilcox won't have an answer.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:48 pm 
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I said a 100 times I respect Kearly, but he has a hard time with Oregon and it's players. Do I think UO can lose? Absolutely! Do I think UO is the first BCS team that UW will score 40 on, hell no. If UW wins it will be a 27-24 win. If Oregon gets going, and scores over 40, Oregon blows Washington's doors off, again. No way can UW stand and go point for point with UO, the last team to do that had Andrew Luck making some of the most ridiculous throws I have ever seen in my life.

For those saying Illinois is a harder game, lol, no. UT has 4 OL that will all play in the NFL, and 2 LB that and a couple DL. Illinois is much more comparable to Virgina not Tennessee. Illinois would lose to UGA by 28, no contest. In fact UT is a quality QB away from being a 1 lose team.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:53 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:14 pm 
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Both teams are a lot better this year, we can jump up and down, wring our hands and make as many predictions as possible and still be completely wrong.

You can take every game at this point in the season with a grain of salt. Yeah, Tennessee should've beat Georgia, but Georgia was missing their top what? 3 running backs? Their top two receivers, and a bevy of other players on defense.

Do we know how good Boise is? Do we ever? Has Arizona completed a forward pass yet?

Bottom line, both Oregon and Washington are better this year, in Washington's case, much better. Oregon is better by a smaller margin because there are fewer levels to climb, at this point you are arguing varying levels of "great". Looking forward to kickoff.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:28 pm 
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kearly wrote:
I think Oregon is a great team, but they haven't been tested at all this season.


If we had played your schedule (sans the Cardinal, obviously), we'd still be saying that about Oregon. We don't get tested by decent teams, it takes a very good team (and UW will be that test) - look at AZ, UW, OSU, etc last year - came in ranked and got drubbed anyways.

UW is a better team this year (which is why I don't expect a blowout), but so is Oregon. Probably both the best offense and best defense (easily) Oregon has had during this run.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:35 pm 
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Well, good luck fella's. Hopefully its an injury free game and is decided by the teams rather then the worst officials in all of sports.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:49 pm 
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Dawgs win 38-35.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:37 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
Another reference point (the only one I can bring up for apples to apples comparison) is that Stanford scored 31 points on Washington (sort of) whereas a 'worse' Ducks defense held them to 17 points last year.


I think you're off on this. Washington's 'worse' defense last year held Stanford to 13 points last year...so the Stanford comparison tells us things have changed from last year. Besides, they played them on the road this year, so there's really not a lot to compare. I don't think anybody is going to say that UW's defense was better last year.

But...we'll find out tomorrow on the field.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:50 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:02 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:52 am 
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DATs a go.

UO 38
UW 27


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:36 am 
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UO 56
WA 42


Do we kick to DAT? I say put them at the 40 every time if we can't put it out the back of the endzone. Seems like a helluva deal after last week.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:01 am 
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Moonman made an appearance decked out in Purple. Love you Warren, lets have dinner sometime.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:14 am 
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I don't see either of these teams scoring above 50. Maybe not even 40.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:30 am 
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ClumsyLurk wrote:
UO 56
WA 42


Do we kick to DAT? I say put them at the 40 every time if we can't put it out the back of the endzone. Seems like a helluva deal after last week.


I think our ST is better (Gawd I hope) than what we showed last week. Granted, we've not faced a DAT, but I think we have to take our chances as opposed to giving them the 40. UO is difficult enough to defend going uphill.

You are probably right though....we can't give up even 1 ST score and expect to win.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:41 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:58 am 
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Sounds like Arik Armstead may not go today. At least he's not starting. Would be another big loss for the Ducks. Our best d'linemen.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:30 pm 
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cesame wrote:
I think the game will be close, but the thing that doesn't worry me is that there's been a clear way to beat Oregon the past 2-3-4 years, and that's to slow the game down, dominate the trenches, burn the clock by running the ball on Oregon and force Oregon to have to beat you with the pass. It has taken teams like Ohio State, Stanford, LSU and Auburn to do this. Washington isn't on that level when it comes to owning the trenches, and I've yet to see a team come close to beating Oregon when they try to beat Oregon at their own game.

This game for Oregon is ultimately going to come down to Mariota and the receivers vs the Washington secondary. Wilcox likes to stack the box with 8 to stop the run. It worked very well against Stanford because Stanford isn't very explosive on the outside. That obviously isn't the case with Oregon. I'm sure Hefrich and Mariota are ready for this. Then to come back to the running game, I still have visions of Ka'Deem Carey running through tackles vs Washington and picking up 132 yards on the day, with the QB Denker rushing for 56 yards as well. I have to believe Oregon will be able to do the same thing.

I'll predict 45-28, with Oregon pulling away in the 4th. Mariota is the best player on the field and Wilcox won't have an answer.


Spot on.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:48 pm 
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cesame wrote:
cesame wrote:
I think the game will be close, but the thing that doesn't worry me is that there's been a clear way to beat Oregon the past 2-3-4 years, and that's to slow the game down, dominate the trenches, burn the clock by running the ball on Oregon and force Oregon to have to beat you with the pass. It has taken teams like Ohio State, Stanford, LSU and Auburn to do this. Washington isn't on that level when it comes to owning the trenches, and I've yet to see a team come close to beating Oregon when they try to beat Oregon at their own game.

This game for Oregon is ultimately going to come down to Mariota and the receivers vs the Washington secondary. Wilcox likes to stack the box with 8 to stop the run. It worked very well against Stanford because Stanford isn't very explosive on the outside. That obviously isn't the case with Oregon. I'm sure Hefrich and Mariota are ready for this. Then to come back to the running game, I still have visions of Ka'Deem Carey running through tackles vs Washington and picking up 132 yards on the day, with the QB Denker rushing for 56 yards as well. I have to believe Oregon will be able to do the same thing.

I'll predict 45-28, with Oregon pulling away in the 4th. Mariota is the best player on the field and Wilcox won't have an answer.


Spot on.

Yep. Now Sark to SC and Mora to UW. Make it happen.

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