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 Post subject: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:27 am 
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I've got Oregon winning 51-34. With that margin cut in half if De'Anthony Thomas does not play. I've got a lot of respect for this UW team and think its the best team they've had in quite awhile. Their problem is going to be that this is the best Ducks team i've ever seen as well. Both sides will score points but I think Oregon is obviously further along in their offensive progression then UW is (makes sense since they've been running the system a lot longer). Washington's defense is very good, but they were very good last year too and the Ducks scored 45 offensive points on them. Plus, this year UW's new fast pace offense is going to give the Ducks offense 3 or 4 extra possessions to work with. (personally I think Sark did the Ducks a favor by switching their offensive philosophy, I think the Ducks match up a lot better against this hurry up spread then they do against the traditional pro style UW offense).

I think Ducks win relatively easily, with Mariota's run/pass threat being the difference. I would be a bit surprised but not completely shocked if UW won, but they're going to need to play a great game to do it. My bold prediction for the game is that either Ifo or TMitch intercept at least one of those UW bubble screens and return if for a pick 6.

(obligatory acknowledgement that UW won a couple championships in the last century to satisfy callmeadawg and hawkwow.)

What you got? Give me a score and a reason.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:33 am 
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52-0 Huskies.

Reason? Hate the ducks.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:37 am 
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This will be good.


Last edited by CPHawk on Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:52 am 
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Here's my personal view on the game; will I be taking my daughter to the pumpkin patch at halftime or at 4? I'm taking one of my daughter's friends with and I told that mom "well, it depends on the Huskies game. I'll pick her up at 4:30, at the latest".

Logic tells me it'll be the Ducks, and I'll be out by halftime. Its their year, fate kind of works like that. Whatever the name of the current Duck HC is, he'll be to Chip Kelly what Tee Martin was to Peyton and Gruden was to Dungy.


Last edited by pehawk on Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:21 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:59 am 
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48-31, Ducks, with late TD for the Dawgs.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:14 am 
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California only put up 16 points on the Ducks. Tennessee, who barely lost to Georgia, only put up 14. Huskies don't realize how good this defense is, and so I just don't see the Huskies breaking the 30 mark. 43 - 24

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:19 am 
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Huskies' D is also top-10 in the nation. I won't say I'd be 'surprised' if the Ducks hang 40, because they're the Ducks and that O is capable of anything. That said, I don't 'expect' them to. I think the Ducks deserve to be favored to win, and I expect them to win by less than the spread. I imagine the winning team will score somewhere around 34 points, and the losing team will score somewhere around 28-30. I think that will end up being Oregon over Washington, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it go the other way.

I guess I'll say Oregon over Washington, 34-28, but I give the Huskies a solid chance of flipping that score. This UW team is tough and dangerous, and at home. How they played Stanford, minus ST and penalties, was special on the road, and they are way more capable of upsetting Oregon than they have been in years' past.

And I'm not impressed by Oregon's win over Cal in terms of how good the defense is. Cal is terrible. UO is phenomenal. That blowout was nothing more than I expect from a phenomenal team over a terrible team.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:25 am 
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jkitsune wrote:

And I'm not impressed by Oregon's win over Cal in terms of how good the defense is. Cal is terrible. UO is phenomenal. That blowout was nothing more than I expect from a phenomenal team over a terrible team.


Cal is horrible, but their passing offense is one of the best in the nation (4th nationally in yards per game). Put up almost 400 passing yards vs Ohio State and 500 vs Washington State.

Oregon insider today says that DAT is doubtful. I'm hoping for a little bit more of Tyner and a little less of Marshall. Tyner is just as fast as DAT, while 30 pounds heavier, but he hasnt learned to set up his blocks as well as De'Anthony does yet. But like De'anthony if Tyner has any open field in front of him, its 6 points.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:53 am 
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Passing yards are worthless, especially when;

a) you don't run the ball.

b) you are always getting killed on the scoreboard.

That said, I like Cal's QB.

35-31 Ducks.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:26 pm 
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I think Cal's offensive struggles throwing the ball against Oregon were a bit overstated, as the weather in that game utterly sucked, and Cal can't run the ball to save their life. Neither can Tennessee, that Vols qb is Rick Klausen reborn.

In regards to the game, I think the advantage obviously goes to Oregon. UW will have the emotion and the crowd, but if things go south early, I could see the crowd really going into "Here we go again" mode. In order for UW to win, they are going to have to cut out all the bs that's been holding them back this year. The stupid penalties, the little mistakes, they have to cut all that in half at minimum.

I think I mentioned this earlier in the thread, Keith Price has trouble against secondaries with speed that close windows fast. When Oregon is playing fast(I know, they are always fast, but there is a manic speed they can play with when they are locked in that resembles a hive of pissed off bees), their secondary can get suffocating.

Washington's o line is a little soft, but I was impressed with their blocking against Stanford. Once they get going and in rhythm they lean on guys a little bit and Sankey(who is not soft) hammers people in between the tackles. Oregon's got some stout d linemen that eat up blockers, have great hand placement and let the rest of the defense flow to the ball. It's the same scheme Oregon's run since Aliotti got there in essence.

I think Kasen Williams can have a big game, as he dwarfs over Oregon's cb's and seems to raise his level of play in big games.

I think Washington moves the ball a bit and scores, but I wonder still about their ability to stop Oregon's attack. They did a good job stopping a similar offense in Arizona(however, Arizona's qb sucks). I think the scheme they put in will be sound, but I wonder about their linebackers chasing Oregon sideline to sideline and the total conditioning it takes to run with the Ducks for four quarters. I also expect Danny Shelton to collapse and die of exhaustion.


Oregon wins 38-30, Huskies keep it interesting but never really threaten.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:44 pm 
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UW over Oregon 45-38. Great defensive effort from the Huskies and Keith shows up last weeks performance with the game of his life 400+ yds, 3TD's. Kasen gets in the action - and big 150+ yds and 2 TD's. ASJ finally shows up and makes some impacting plays. Bishop Sankey has a stout effort with 200+ yards and 3 TD's.

Montlake goes crazy smelling the Roses....


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:53 pm 
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The only thing I smell right now is blatant mid week homer optimism. But that is the beauty of sports. Should be a great game, need a next level effort from the Huskies to win.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:20 pm 
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They need to play lights out on special teams, stout on D, and Keith needs to play another fantastic game. If they do those things, they can beat Oregon.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:49 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:00 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:

I think Ducks win relatively easily, with Mariota's run/pass threat being the difference. I would be a bit surprised but not completely shocked if UW won.


Did you attend the Howard Cosell school of sports journalism, JSEA?

For our younger members: Cosell was notorious for covering his bases.

Gifford: "Who do you like in tonite's big match-up, Howard"?
Cosell: "Well Frank, I like the Bears big, but the Giants don't lose games of this magnitude".

At the game's conclusion, Howard would pat himself on the back and offer his famous "Just as I called it". Loved the guy and got hammered with him at FX McCrory's after a MNF game in the dome. UBER-intelligent man. Even when loaded. He is missed.

MY BOLD PREDICTION: UO 41- UW 24. Going to be very hard for us to beat this loaded UO team at their own game. I don't have the whole 10 year fear thing. Oregon has been better than us for 10 years. So what? Football is all about history, regardless of what that means to some. It is also historically cyclical.

I will be shocked if we win on Saturday, not surprised if we win the next 10. This rivalry will go on long after we are gone. In the end, all that matters is history and who won more Nattys. UO can beat us Saturday, but in the bigger picture, it's an almost insignificant W if they don't also win the title. That said, the pressure is on UO, not U-Dub, IMO. GO DAWGS!


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:09 pm 
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Oregon's chances at a National Title are slim (if not completely gone) if they lose to Washington. So there is that, the whole "win the decade" thing, and being the favorite to win the game. The pressure is all on them, and they are on the road.

Oregon can lose, you know... Ask Stanford about that. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:27 pm 
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CallMeADawg wrote:
Oregon's chances at a National Title are slim (if not completely gone) if they lose to Washington. So there is that, the whole "win the decade" thing, and being the favorite to win the game. The pressure is all on them, and they are on the road.

Oregon can lose, you know... Ask Stanford about that. ;)



Oregon hasn't lost on the road since 2009, and UW beat Stanford last year, and UO blew UW doors off. So there's that.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:58 pm 
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I feel we pose a bigger threat to UO than Stanford does. The Ducks will double Stanford's score when they meet. UO has UCLA at home, so will finish the season undefeated and play Bama for the Natty.


Stanford likes to fancy themselves as an SEC team playing in the Pac12. All good. They wanna' believe playing "smash mouth football" equates them to 'Bama. I'd more compare them to S. Carolina.

At #5, I'd call Stanford the most over-rated team in college football. Their schedule isn't exactly murderous, so they will finish with 2 losses (and an asterisk) going into their bowl game, which I hope they also lose. Stanford should not be in the top 10, and I will be stunned if they finish in the top 10.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:07 pm 
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HawkWow wrote:
I feel we pose a bigger threat to UO than Stanford does.


Stongly disagree. From a Ducks perspective UW's strengths match up perfectly with what the Ducks like to do. Stanford's power game scares the crap out of me. If the Ducks get a 10 point lead on Stanford, then its over. But if the game stays close i'm much more worried about STanford then I am about Washington.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:10 pm 
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Stanford has shown this year, they aren't a 4th qrt team. Asu and UW both wore them our and made comebacks late, and I think that could hurt them vs UO.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:37 pm 
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I recall Stanford having most of their starters out when ASU got those points in the fourth quarter.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:46 pm 
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JSeahawks wrote:
HawkWow wrote:
I feel we pose a bigger threat to UO than Stanford does.


Stongly disagree. From a Ducks perspective UW's strengths match up perfectly with what the Ducks like to do. Stanford's power game scares the crap out of me. If the Ducks get a 10 point lead on Stanford, then its over. But if the game stays close i'm much more worried about STanford then I am about Washington.


You're scaring yourself on purpose. You miss the rush that comes with the possibility your team may not emerge victorious. I recall being in your shoes. In '91, I had to convince myself Nebraska could beat us. When they jumped out to an early lead (at their house) I felt a rush of adrenaline I'd grown to miss. Of course, their lead was short lived and we WHUPPED that ass.

How often these days do you get that with UO? Without the possibility of losing, winning becomes less thrilling. But deep down, you know better.

Stanford is no match for Oregon. The Dawgs have big play ability from numerous targets and that's the main reason I believe we will give you more of a fight than that hideous tree. All this talk about smash mouth football and physicality. My ass. They are no more physically imposing than U-Dub. In fact, less so. Stanford is more pretender than contender. 40-20 UO @ "The Farm".


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:52 pm 
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Well then why am I not scared about Washington?

Stanford beat us last year. We've beat UW by an average of 26 points the last 9 years. Forgive me if i'm more worried about one then the other.

I don't think Stanford beats Oregon. I don't think anybody beats Oregon this season. But if anybody beats them I think it will be either Alabama or Stanford.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:19 pm 
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Like you said, Stanford beat Oregon and Oregon pounded the Dawgs. The same Dawgs that beat Stanford.

Oregon played flat and Stanford over their heads. The odds of that combination happening again...I'd say, are about none. You're lucky to have them ranked 5th. The result will net you 1st place votes.


But.....Stanford and 'Bama in the same sentence, JSea? Blasphemous.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:03 am 
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I mean this as a serious question, is Oregon's offense really that much better than UW's right now? Because UW is nearly the top offense in the country, and they've played (IMO) a much tougher defensive schedule than Oregon has to this point.

I think Oregon's offense is better, but I think it's very close. I think UW's defense is better, but it's close. The game is at Washington with that new stadium that can get pretty loud. UW could have, and arguably should have, beaten Stanford in their house last week. Stanford won, but I honestly came away from that game feeling that UW was the better team.

I think this game is almost a coinflip. I think if they played 100 times Oregon wins just a little over 50 of them. I don't get where the blowout predictions are coming from. UW is a much tougher and better team than I think some people here realize.

UW has done very well this season against hurry up offenses. Obviously, Oregon's is the gold standard, but I'd be surprised if they broke 50.

Oregon: 42
UW: 43

Also, I don't think this is necessarily Oregon's best season. They haven't played anyone yet. Those other Oregon teams destroyed inferior competition every bit as the the current team is.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:17 am 
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kearly wrote:
I mean this as a serious question, is Oregon's offense really that much better than UW's right now? Because UW is nearly the top offense in the country, and they've played (IMO) a much tougher defensive schedule than Oregon has to this point.

I think Oregon's offense is better, but I think it's very close. I think UW's defense is better, but it's close. The game is at Washington with that new stadium that can get pretty loud. UW could have, and arguably should have, beaten Stanford in their house last week. Stanford won, but I honestly came away from that game feeling that UW was the better team.

I think this game is almost a coinflip. I think if they played 100 times Oregon wins just a little over 50 of them. I don't get where the blowout predictions are coming from. UW is a much tougher and better team than I think some people here realize.

UW has done very well this season against hurry up offenses. Obviously, Oregon's is the gold standard, but I'd be surprised if they broke 50.

Oregon: 42
UW: 43

Also, I don't think this is necessarily Oregon's best season. They haven't played anyone yet. Those other Oregon teams destroyed inferior competition every bit as the the current team is.


Oregon fans are confident about this game because our team beat the crap out of a good Tennessee team (the one that took #6 Georgia to OT). I also think that the Huskies are overestimating their abilities because they played a bunch of nobodies (including an over-ranked Boise St. team and a middling Illinois team) just like you're saying Oregon did. That point doesn't fall in your favor because when the Huskies played a somebody, they lost.

Another reference point (the only one I can bring up for apples to apples comparison) is that Stanford scored 31 points on Washington (sort of) whereas a 'worse' Ducks defense held them to 17 points last year. I'm confident the UO defense is much better this year (possibly better than Stanford's D even), and I'm not sold that your defense will be successful against the blur.

I do agree that the homefield advantage will play into the final score, but I'm not worried that it's the deciding factor. The imitation isn't beating the original. This isn't an Oreo/Hydrox situation. This will be an Oregon win.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:17 am 
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I'm changing my pick, simply because I don't appreciate Sarc83's confidence in the face of his zero football knowledge.

38-24, Dawgs


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:41 am 
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I'm not sure the UW defense is better than Oregon's, honestly. I think Oregon has a solid advantage at DL, and that will be the difference in the UW O vs UO D matchup. I think calling the defenses a push is pretty fair to UW.

On offense, I can't see UW beating Oregon at its own game. Obviously the offenses won't play eachother, but I only see a couple UW offensive players that I'd rather have than Oregon, and that is not counting DAT (who I expect to be out and is better for us than Sankey would be, but Sankey is better for UW since he can carry the load, which UO doesn't need). How do the Dawgs fans here feel about your depth? Tempo vs Tempo matchups are going to make depth hugely important in this game.

Working under the assumption DAT doesn't play, I think the game is darn close: 38-28 (with these offenses that means you're watching til the end). I really think DAT is worth 10-14pts (EASY) in this game. I really see the LOS dictating this game, and IMO that favors UO.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:01 am 
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pehawk wrote:
I'm changing my pick, simply because I don't appreciate Sarc83's confidence in the face of his zero football knowledge.

38-24, Dawgs


You might as well head to the pumpkin patch right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:21 am 
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pehawk wrote:
I'm changing my pick, simply because I don't appreciate Sarc83's confidence in the face of his zero football knowledge.

38-24, Dawgs


Does this mean I've completed my good deed for the day?

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:36 am 
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Yes sir! Its rivalry week!


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:55 am 
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35 to 28 Dawgs!

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:17 am 
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I'm starting to think dat is playing. The ducks never ever talk about injuries, but it seems like they're going out of there way this week to make dat look doubtful. Starting to think there's some gamesmenship going on there.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:24 am 
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Lol at Kearly and his blind hate for UO.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:27 am 
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Kearly doesn't have blind hate though. He actually doesn't. If anything kearly's been respecting the rivals too much. Be it his crush on Harbaugh or Mariachi (that's the Ducks QB, right?), kearly surprised the hell out of me with his pick.

I was about to proclaim he jumped the shark, being too unbiased, actually.

I'm glad to have my smart, yet bias, Chip Tardyale back in tow.


Last edited by pehawk on Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:07 pm 
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CPHawk wrote:
Lol at Kearly and his blind hate for UO.


Can you see from where your head is? I imagine it's rather dark there.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:15 pm 
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pehawk wrote:
Kearly doesn't have blind hate though. He actually doesn't If anything kearly's been respecting the rivals to much. Be it his crush on Harbaugh or Mariachi (that's the Ducks QB, right?), kearly surprised the hell out of me with his pick.

I was about to proclaim he jumped the shark, being too unbiased, actually.

I'm glad to have my smart, yet bias, Chip Tardyale back in tow.


Ducks QB is Milachi. He and his brother wrecked Pinky Tuscadero with the famous "Milachi Crunch" during a demolition derby.

Really pissed of the Fonz

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:33 pm 
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There's a GREAT Opie and Anthony skit where they replay one of the old Happy Days episodes, one of the "very special episodes" dealing with a societal ill. Its great.

Are you sure their QB isn't Mariucci?


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:56 pm 
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Sarlacc83 wrote:
kearly wrote:
I mean this as a serious question, is Oregon's offense really that much better than UW's right now? Because UW is nearly the top offense in the country, and they've played (IMO) a much tougher defensive schedule than Oregon has to this point.

I think Oregon's offense is better, but I think it's very close. I think UW's defense is better, but it's close. The game is at Washington with that new stadium that can get pretty loud. UW could have, and arguably should have, beaten Stanford in their house last week. Stanford won, but I honestly came away from that game feeling that UW was the better team.

I think this game is almost a coinflip. I think if they played 100 times Oregon wins just a little over 50 of them. I don't get where the blowout predictions are coming from. UW is a much tougher and better team than I think some people here realize.

UW has done very well this season against hurry up offenses. Obviously, Oregon's is the gold standard, but I'd be surprised if they broke 50.

Oregon: 42
UW: 43

Also, I don't think this is necessarily Oregon's best season. They haven't played anyone yet. Those other Oregon teams destroyed inferior competition every bit as the the current team is.


Oregon fans are confident about this game because our team beat the crap out of a good Tennessee team (the one that took #6 Georgia to OT). I also think that the Huskies are overestimating their abilities because they played a bunch of nobodies (including an over-ranked Boise St. team and a middling Illinois team) just like you're saying Oregon did. That point doesn't fall in your favor because when the Huskies played a somebody, they lost.

Another reference point (the only one I can bring up for apples to apples comparison) is that Stanford scored 31 points on Washington (sort of) whereas a 'worse' Ducks defense held them to 17 points last year. I'm confident the UO defense is much better this year (possibly better than Stanford's D even), and I'm not sold that your defense will be successful against the blur.

I do agree that the homefield advantage will play into the final score, but I'm not worried that it's the deciding factor. The imitation isn't beating the original. This isn't an Oreo/Hydrox situation. This will be an Oregon win.


Boise State was a ranked opponent, and are a better team than you give credit for. The final score did not indicate the way the game was played. They beat UW in the trenches more than Stanford did.

You don't think one of the nations higher ranked defenses can hold Oregon to 42 points at home?

Tennessee isn't a good football team. That game was in Oregon too, across the country. Who didn't expect a pasting there? I like Georgia, but they have been erratic week to week for years. Sometimes they are giant killers. Sometimes they lose to teams they have no business losing to. I like them. But they make for a poor measuring stick. Especially if we're talking about a measuring stick for a measuring stick, which is flawed logic to begin with.

The Huskies scored 28 points and racked up around 500 yards at Stanford. They lost, because of special teams and officiating. You watched the game, right? Them losing does not change how eye opening the performance was.

I hope that didn't read too hostile. Apologies if it did. Also, thanks for having my back a few posts up.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:02 pm 
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I would argue that how you play against Stanford gas zero correlation to how ou play against Oregon. The two are polar opposites in almost every way.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:27 pm 
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kearly wrote:
Sarlacc83 wrote:
kearly wrote:
I mean this as a serious question, is Oregon's offense really that much better than UW's right now? Because UW is nearly the top offense in the country, and they've played (IMO) a much tougher defensive schedule than Oregon has to this point.

I think Oregon's offense is better, but I think it's very close. I think UW's defense is better, but it's close. The game is at Washington with that new stadium that can get pretty loud. UW could have, and arguably should have, beaten Stanford in their house last week. Stanford won, but I honestly came away from that game feeling that UW was the better team.

I think this game is almost a coinflip. I think if they played 100 times Oregon wins just a little over 50 of them. I don't get where the blowout predictions are coming from. UW is a much tougher and better team than I think some people here realize.

UW has done very well this season against hurry up offenses. Obviously, Oregon's is the gold standard, but I'd be surprised if they broke 50.

Oregon: 42
UW: 43

Also, I don't think this is necessarily Oregon's best season. They haven't played anyone yet. Those other Oregon teams destroyed inferior competition every bit as the the current team is.


Oregon fans are confident about this game because our team beat the crap out of a good Tennessee team (the one that took #6 Georgia to OT). I also think that the Huskies are overestimating their abilities because they played a bunch of nobodies (including an over-ranked Boise St. team and a middling Illinois team) just like you're saying Oregon did. That point doesn't fall in your favor because when the Huskies played a somebody, they lost.

Another reference point (the only one I can bring up for apples to apples comparison) is that Stanford scored 31 points on Washington (sort of) whereas a 'worse' Ducks defense held them to 17 points last year. I'm confident the UO defense is much better this year (possibly better than Stanford's D even), and I'm not sold that your defense will be successful against the blur.

I do agree that the homefield advantage will play into the final score, but I'm not worried that it's the deciding factor. The imitation isn't beating the original. This isn't an Oreo/Hydrox situation. This will be an Oregon win.


Boise State was a ranked opponent, and are a better team than you give credit for. The final score did not indicate the way the game was played. They beat UW in the trenches more than Stanford did.

You don't think one of the nations higher ranked defenses can hold Oregon to 42 points at home?

Tennessee isn't a good football team. That game was in Oregon too, across the country. Who didn't expect a pasting there? I like Georgia, but they have been erratic week to week for years. Sometimes they are giant killers. Sometimes they lose to teams they have no business losing to. I like them. But they make for a poor measuring stick. Especially if we're talking about a measuring stick for a measuring stick, which is flawed logic to begin with.

The Huskies scored 28 points and racked up around 500 yards at Stanford. They lost, because of special teams and officiating. You watched the game, right? Them losing does not change how eye opening the performance was.

I hope that didn't read too hostile. Apologies if it did. Also, thanks for having my back a few posts up.



I think what you've said is totally fair.

1) I didn't have the time to watch the UW - Stanford game hence the 'sort of' comment. I understand the Huskies played well, and I also know it took a few special teams gaffes. But since the Ducks consider special teams integral and they have just as much speed on ST as Stanford does (if not more) where they can get 7 easy points, don't you think that's going to hurt UW? Also, what if UW just matches up really well with Stanford like last year but they don't matchup well with Oregon like last year? That, too, is in the back of my mind. Maybe they played the game of their lives like Tennessee did against Georgia. ;)

2) I don't what else I can use for a measuring stick right now as the two haven't played a common opponent. I do have to make some educated guesses for better or worse. I mean, I did expect a pasting of Tennessee, but I didn't expect it to be almost 40 points. I think you have to be fair and give them credit for that because it's not like they played Nicholls State a second time. Yes, there are matchups issues as mentioned in 1, but I did cite it as a reason to be excited, didn't I? I didn't make it a guarantee of victory but I think that, besides, Stanford, the 'preseason' schedules weren't that disparate.

3) I don't expect the UW D to hold down the Oregon offense. Why would I? Innocent until proven guilty. :th2thumbs:

4) I hate Boise State so my opinion on them is always dour, but I don't put stock in pre-season rankings because they're really just guesses (and in BSU's state, based on previous successes). Petersen's a pretty good defensive coach, but I don't consider them half as talented now as they were in the Kellen Moore years on the offensive side of the ball, so holding them to 6 points doesn't impress me. Maybe I'm wrong there. Obviously the LoS is a big deal tomorrow.

5) I don't think UW is a pushover. Maybe my opinion of Oregon will get dashed tomorrow. I, and a lot of other Ducks fans, think they're better than they were during the 12-1 season. Obviously it's a big measuring stick for us. I, reasonably or unreasonably, think you're underestimating them.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:33 pm 
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I think Tennessee at home is probably an easier win than Illinois was on the road. I think Oregon is a great team, but they haven't been tested at all this season. By contrast, UW has only had one game where they could legitimately feel like a win was guaranteed. IMO, UW has played 3 opponents tougher than Oregon's toughest: Stanford, Boise St., and Arizona. With an improved Illinois on the road being debatable.

I think Oregon is the same team they were last year, when they were the 2nd best team in the nation in the eyes of many. Is that underestimating them? I think Oregon is a National championship contender. And I think UW is 90% as good as of this moment.

FWIW I think UW falls back to earth in a big way after this season when they have to replace Price. I'm not a big believer in Miles based on what I've seen so far. But right now? Top to bottom, they are legit. And I haven't said that about a Husky team in over 10 years.


Last edited by kearly on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:37 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:38 pm 
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I'm not going to argue that Oregon's had it easier so far, but that's more because of the Pac 12 schedule if you're going to bring those teams into the equation. The schedule doesn't determine how good a team is though, and you don't win any moral points for having a tougher schedule (in this argument. I mean, naturally the computers will like your team better.). It's probably nicer because you can play catch up later, though.

Also, let's remember that Oregon is a fast starter and then falters in November.

Edit: I saw your second edit, and I don't understand your math if you think the game is a coin flip but Oregon is 11% better. Do you feel the new stadium is that good to make up the difference?

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Last edited by Sarlacc83 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:41 pm 
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The schedule is as a point of reference to statistical performance. So if you are going to say Oregon is better because of the stats, it would be silly to not consider the context of those performances.

Also, until a team plays somebody you really can't gauge how truly good of a football team they are. Oregon always rolls bad teams, but has struggled against very high ranked opponents. I'm not saying that they are frauds, I think it's only natural to struggle against tough teams, but I think if we are looking at a body of evidence full of cupcake games, there really isn't anything in that data that tells us how well Oregon will play against top competition in 2013.

I think you are operating under the perception that this is the same UW team from the last few years. It isn't. They are definitely copying Oregon, but that doesn't mean they can't win. This figures to be a tight game, and if Thomas is out, I'd feel very confident favoring Washington.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:51 pm 
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kearly wrote:
The schedule is as a point of reference to statistical performance. So if you are going to say Oregon is better because of the stats, it would be silly to not consider the context of those performances.

Also, until a team plays somebody you really can't gauge how truly good of a football team they are. Oregon always rolls bad teams, but has struggled against very high ranked opponents. I'm not saying that they are frauds, I think it's only natural to struggle against tough teams, but I think if we are looking at a body of evidence full of cupcake games, there really isn't anything in that data that tells us how well Oregon will play against top competition in 2013.

I think you are operating under the perception that this is the same UW team from the last few years. It isn't. They are definitely copying Oregon, but that doesn't mean they can't win. This figures to be a tight game, and if Thomas is out, I'd feel very confident favoring Washington.


I don't think this is the same UW team as year's past, and I'm not sure why you get that opinion. I know they're good. I just happen to think you're talking up their opponents (other than Stanford) more than you really should be allowed. I don't think there's a huge gap between Illinois and Arizona and Tennessee/Virginia as they're all kind of middling teams when it comes to non-conference and I think Boise State should've never been ranked though they're a dangerous team. However, even then, none of these teams can tell us much because they're either not a spread offense or not a good one.

Finally: You see your team through your lens and I see Oregon through mine. Which is really OK. I think that Oregon is far superior to what they were last year because of the defensive improvement and growth in our WR corps. I think the defensive line is MUCH better and the offensive line is also made advancements. We'll see if I'm right at 1PM.

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Last edited by Sarlacc83 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:53 pm 
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Dave Bartoo, a regular guest on 1080 The Fan down here in Portland that runs a college football betting system called the college football matrix, says his system has Washington covering and winning this game. This is the same guy that said 2-3 months before the season that Oregon State would upset Wisconsin last year. He's been right a lot, and he's actually a Ducks fan.

I think the game will be close, but the thing that doesn't worry me is that there's been a clear way to beat Oregon the past 2-3-4 years, and that's to slow the game down, dominate the trenches, burn the clock by running the ball on Oregon and force Oregon to have to beat you with the pass. It has taken teams like Ohio State, Stanford, LSU and Auburn to do this. Washington isn't on that level when it comes to owning the trenches, and I've yet to see a team come close to beating Oregon when they try to beat Oregon at their own game.

This game for Oregon is ultimately going to come down to Mariota and the receivers vs the Washington secondary. Wilcox likes to stack the box with 8 to stop the run. It worked very well against Stanford because Stanford isn't very explosive on the outside. That obviously isn't the case with Oregon. I'm sure Hefrich and Mariota are ready for this. Then to come back to the running game, I still have visions of Ka'Deem Carey running through tackles vs Washington and picking up 132 yards on the day, with the QB Denker rushing for 56 yards as well. I have to believe Oregon will be able to do the same thing.

I'll predict 45-28, with Oregon pulling away in the 4th. Mariota is the best player on the field and Wilcox won't have an answer.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:48 pm 
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I said a 100 times I respect Kearly, but he has a hard time with Oregon and it's players. Do I think UO can lose? Absolutely! Do I think UO is the first BCS team that UW will score 40 on, hell no. If UW wins it will be a 27-24 win. If Oregon gets going, and scores over 40, Oregon blows Washington's doors off, again. No way can UW stand and go point for point with UO, the last team to do that had Andrew Luck making some of the most ridiculous throws I have ever seen in my life.

For those saying Illinois is a harder game, lol, no. UT has 4 OL that will all play in the NFL, and 2 LB that and a couple DL. Illinois is much more comparable to Virgina not Tennessee. Illinois would lose to UGA by 28, no contest. In fact UT is a quality QB away from being a 1 lose team.


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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
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 Post subject: Re: Predict the score of Ducks vs Dawgs
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:14 pm 
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Both teams are a lot better this year, we can jump up and down, wring our hands and make as many predictions as possible and still be completely wrong.

You can take every game at this point in the season with a grain of salt. Yeah, Tennessee should've beat Georgia, but Georgia was missing their top what? 3 running backs? Their top two receivers, and a bevy of other players on defense.

Do we know how good Boise is? Do we ever? Has Arizona completed a forward pass yet?

Bottom line, both Oregon and Washington are better this year, in Washington's case, much better. Oregon is better by a smaller margin because there are fewer levels to climb, at this point you are arguing varying levels of "great". Looking forward to kickoff.


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