Post Texans game: Biggest draft needs?

BamKam · Sep 30, 2013

It is early but I thought it would be a good time to talk about where we could improve this team next year.

I would like to add a lineman or 2. Okung is so brittle and I hate McQuistan at OT. Carp is really inconsistent as well.

Pass rush could be improved but we will see if Irvin has improved this year as well as what Bennett and Avril are going to do.

SeatownJay · Sep 30, 2013

Offensive line and linebackers. Those are the biggest needs.

davidonmi · Sep 30, 2013

We'll see what jordan hill does.
Definitely guard (I've given up on Carp)
Depth at LB
perhaps a 3rd safety
A big WR perhaps
Biggest need is TE

Attyla the Hawk · Oct 1, 2013

Salary cap relief. That means one or more of the following:

DE (Clemons 9.6m/Bryant 8m)
DT (Mebane 5.5m)
WR (Rice 9m/Tate 5m?)
TE (Miller 7m)
OL (McQuistan 3m/Giacomini 4m)

Bold = little to no dead money cost

None of the needs listed above are worth more than not being able to resign Sherman or Thomas. Some of these can be renegotiated or cut and resigned later for less. But likely not all of them. Some of these salaries absolutely much go next year.

Figure 3 of these if you believe Bennett needs to be resigned. He'll command 6m+, up from 4.8m this year.

I'd say WR is highly likely to be reworked. For 2 specific reasons. One, the quality at the position is very very strong, and should have several outside WR options available to replace Rice. Two, the WR production is modest. Partially by design. Rice's contract is enormous and is not even enough to just extend Sherman on it's own.

Some of these moves will happen before the draft. For example, Bryant has a 3m roster bonus for the 2014 season. Meaning he'll earn it the 2nd day of the league year which will be early March. For Seattle to rid itself of this unrecoverable expense, they'll have to cut him by that time. If Seattle harbors hopes of resigning Tate, they'll have to make this room early -- maybe even day 1. At any rate, we will know well ahead of draft time if that vacancy remains since he'll be gone early and we'll have had to sign a replacement well ahead of the draft if that was going to be the case.

Additionally, McQuistan and Giacomini are UFAs in 2014. So technically, they are already not on the roster next year. If they aren't resigned, there are 2 open positions on the OL that will need filling regardless if Bowie/Bailey are elevated.

UFAs that will merit consideration to resign:

Thurmond
Tate
Browner
Bennett

Also consider, that Baldwin will be an RFA. I don't see any way we have Clemons or Bryant on this payroll, as those two alone would allow us to resign all 4 of those UFAs and extend Thomas too. Rice and someone else will be required for Sherman. I expect Avril is the Clemons replacement for 2014 and his cap value is already factored in as he's on the club and his guaranteed value prohibits cutting him.

I'd say WR and OL is likely as there could be more than one vacancy for each of those units. Some of those vacancies may be filled by 1 year show me contracts -- not unlike Bennett this year.

cover-2 · Oct 1, 2013

Attyla the Hawk":32ep9w0u said:
Salary cap relief. That means one or more of the following:

DE (Clemons 9.6m/Bryant 8m)
DT (Mebane 5.5m)
WR (Rice 9m/Tate 5m?)
TE (Miller 7m)
OL (McQuistan 3m/Giacomini 4m)

Bold = little to no dead money cost

None of the needs listed above are worth more than not being able to resign Sherman or Thomas. Some of these can be renegotiated or cut and resigned later for less. But likely not all of them. Some of these salaries absolutely much go next year.

Figure 3 of these if you believe Bennett needs to be resigned. He'll command 6m+, up from 4.8m this year.

I'd say WR is highly likely to be reworked. For 2 specific reasons. One, the quality at the position is very very strong, and should have several outside WR options available to replace Rice. Two, the WR production is modest. Partially by design. Rice's contract is enormous and is not even enough to just extend Sherman on it's own.

Some of these moves will happen before the draft. For example, Bryant has a 3m roster bonus for the 2014 season. Meaning he'll earn it the 2nd day of the league year which will be early March. For Seattle to rid itself of this unrecoverable expense, they'll have to cut him by that time. If Seattle harbors hopes of resigning Tate, they'll have to make this room early -- maybe even day 1. At any rate, we will know well ahead of draft time if that vacancy remains since he'll be gone early and we'll have had to sign a replacement well ahead of the draft if that was going to be the case.

Additionally, McQuistan and Giacomini are UFAs in 2014. So technically, they are already not on the roster next year. If they aren't resigned, there are 2 open positions on the OL that will need filling regardless if Bowie/Bailey are elevated.

UFAs that will merit consideration to resign:

Thurmond
Tate
Browner
Bennett

Also consider, that Baldwin will be an RFA. I don't see any way we have Clemons or Bryant on this payroll, as those two alone would allow us to resign all 4 of those UFAs and extend Thomas too. Rice and someone else will be required for Sherman. I expect Avril is the Clemons replacement for 2014 and his cap value is already factored in as he's on the club and his guaranteed value prohibits cutting him.

I'd say WR and OL is likely as there could be more than one vacancy for each of those units. Some of those vacancies may be filled by 1 year show me contracts -- not unlike Bennett this year.

Clemons is a must keep for me, he is a better pass rusher than Avril. I just don't see Avril's initial burst that he had with the Lions. Avril is on my cut list at the end of the year, he is due to make $9+ million next year.

sutz · Oct 1, 2013

The Seahawks need to wait until the season is over before making snap judgements on needs based on one (or even 4) games.

Attyla the Hawk · Oct 1, 2013

cover-2":112aa7y4 said:
Clemons is a must keep for me, he is a better pass rusher than Avril. I just don't see Avril's initial burst that he had with the Lions. Avril is on my cut list at the end of the year, he is due to make $9+ million next year.

Avril's contract is close to fully guaranteed. He has a 2.5m dead money hit due to his signing bonus. And 5m of his 7m base for 2014 becomes guaranteed the day after the SB. So cutting him would be a 7.5m dead money hit. Whereas Clemons has a 2m dead money hit on his 9m contract.

sutz":112aa7y4 said:
The Seahawks need to wait until the season is over before making snap judgements on needs based on one (or even 4) games.

It's not really much of a snap judgement. In fact, I'm not sure the FO necessarily cares how a player is performing when they reach the final year of their deal. Seattle likes to have the ability to cut guys in the last year of the deal and generally guarantees are paid up front. It fits their '3 year plan' thinking by design. They gain cap flexibility as these contracts reach the end of life.

In this case, it's not the fact that any of the players I listed are worth the salaries. It's the fact that we have other players worth MORE to us that need the salary cap room. If those guys were to have failed to advance to elite 'we gotta pay them' status, then we would have been in a position to cherry pick the contracts we keep to the end.

Fortunately, the guys approaching their second contracts are worth being paid like the best in the league. We will be obliged to cut ties with good players who are totally worth their deals because we've structured an out in case we needed that space. Which we most certainly do.

The structure of Avril's deal pretty much dictates who will leave. Schneider is very forward thinking on his contracts and if you look at them closely enough, you can make a good educated guess on how long these big contracts are expected to survive from the FO perspective.

The players I listed above are the big ticket contracts whose 2014 structures give us the most value and least amount of dead money cost. When you are talking about resigning Bennett and/or Tate and extending Thomas and Sherman -- those are the contracts where those cap dollars will come from.

McGruff · Oct 1, 2013

Depth again . . .

Really, I like enough of what I've seen from Bowie and Bailey to think we'll be okay letting Breno and Giacomini walk.

And with Hill, Willaims and Scruggs, I'm not overly concerned about letting guy like Bryant and Clemons go.

This team has done a good job of grooming replacements. Let's just keep doing that.

Subzero717 · Oct 1, 2013

SeatownJay":15zzsv7e said:
Offensive line and linebackers. Those are the biggest needs.

I'm with you on offensive line. The guards are horrible. Sweezy is pure garbage and so is Carp in pass protection. The tackles weren't much better. Honestly though I'm not sure if that's the route though. Outside of Okung we haven't drafted very well at o-line. Maybe going after a proven commodity in FA is a better course of action. I for one was all for bringing in Eric Winston and I'm not a lets sign every FA out there kind of guy.

LBer I don't see as a major need. I like Wagner and Wright a lot. I like Smith too. He most likely will end up being behind Irvin so he's depth. Irvin has yet to be seen. A lot of people saw the Houston TEs with chunk plays and lack of coverage but Maxwell was lined up on the TE for a chunk of those and Schaub was money. With a CB over a TE I would have like to see Schofield a little more as I think he's better up front than Smith.

WR I see as a need. I think when Harvin gets back it will open up a little more. I like all of our recievers but somethings off. Granted Wilson gets a ton of pressure all the time but he should be able to get the ball out in 4 seconds. I don't have coaches tape so I don't see down the field on every play but it doesn't seem our guys are getting very good seperation or something.

TE. Miller is the only one worth a darn. Willson is young so he is what he is but size I have a feeling will dictate his ceiling. Kellen should be cut. Thst was awful. I don't know why we didn't keep Mcgrath.

Jazzhawk · Oct 1, 2013

OL, TE, DE, Backup SS (I'm not sold on Jeron Johnson at all.)

jhern87 · Oct 1, 2013

Like almost everyone, OL.. It will be interesting to see if TC opts for the draft or FA to find OL talent.

Subzero717 · Oct 1, 2013

Jazzhawk":zldn2cxc said:
OL, TE, DE, Backup SS (I'm not sold on Jeron Johnson at all.)

I almost put safety, but my concern is with Maragos. I do think however, Johnson would more likely start for either if they went down. I know the depth chart states one thing but I just think that's how it would play out. I'm not concerned with Johnson. I recall the preseason game. He missed on a few plays and they said he was diagnosing the play faster than the offense could execute it. Take that for what it's worth but I don't mind him so much.

kf3339 · Oct 1, 2013

Our major need is OL. I seriously hope we use two of our first three picks on RT and LG/RG. While Bailey and Bowie may get better they were UDFA and 7th round picks for a reason.

Now if we somehow are able to solve this issue with perhaps a player trade, or FA signing then it is less a need. But right now that line is just not good at all. Even with our 1st string line I think they still need some serious work on pass protection.

This is where I have an issue with Cable. He may be good at teaching run blocking, but I don't see after going into his third year here that he has improved our pass protection at all. That is just not acceptable.

Some of you may also remember that both Carpenter and Moffitt were his picks in 2011. So far that has been a failure.

I know he is PC's pick and will probably not be going anywhere, but for a guy so celebrated around here, his OL's play under him has not proven it to me at all.

Mtjhoyas · Oct 1, 2013

I'd say DT and OL.

DT specifically because we need more young talent. Ra'shede Hageman? Rotation position anyways, so it's easier for a young pup to contribute.

OL, but unfortunately the recent history of late R1 O-lineman has been abysmal. I'm still willing to give time to the current crop of young OL who show a lot of promise. OL, IMO is more about cohesion not individual talent, so I don't want to go overboard by reaching for an OL out of fear.

I'd say WR and LB are wild cards early in the draft. I'd say TE, but I think they really like Luke Willson and I'm not sure there's a TE available high in the draft that fits the team. I don't think ASJ is fast enough for SEA to take him in R1. Maybe Colt Lyerla?

cover-2 · Oct 2, 2013

Attyla the Hawk":36e6z984 said:
Avril's contract is close to fully guaranteed. He has a 2.5m dead money hit due to his signing bonus. And 5m of his 7m base for 2014 becomes guaranteed the day after the SB. So cutting him would be a 7.5m dead money hit. Whereas Clemons has a 2m dead money hit on his 9m contract.

That may be the case, and if you think Clemons and Avil are the same player then okay cut Clemons. I know its early in the season and Avril was dealing with an injury in the pre-season, but I just don't see that initial burst to put consistent pressure on the QB. Whereas Clemons coming off a fairly serious injury is already a much more disruptive player than Avril. If we were to rate our DE's on a 1-10 scale with 10 being the best I would give Clemson a 9 and Avril a 6, keeping Avril and cutting Clemons IMO is a big downgrade.

rsm650 · Oct 2, 2013

I agree - OL is definitely needed. Think about how good Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are currently. Now think about if we had the 2005 OL squad right now and Percy Harvin healthy :179417: We're kind of set with Okung and Unger, but that's only 2/5 of the OL that are great.

theENGLISHseahawk · Oct 3, 2013

We're currently playing without our starting left tackle, center and right tackle. We've moved our left guard to left tackle.

Four positions impacted by injuries.

It's an injury crisis, not a major need unless we're discussing Breno and McQuistan being allowed to walk.

Are people REALLY talking about the 2005 line again??? That's a different era. You can't go back and get Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson. Move on. Besides, apart from Jones and Hutch, how much better exactly is Sean Locklear, Robbie Tobeck and Chris Gray compared to the current group? Or more specifically, how good would they have looked if Jones and Hutch got injured at the same time (see: Okung/Unger).

What's more the NFL has changed with offensive tackles getting WAY over drafted. Three in the top four picks last year. Eric Fisher goes first overall because he's pretty athletic for the position. Lane Johnson goes 4th overall because he looked athletic at the combine.

If you're expecting a great right tackle to be waiting for Seattle in the late first round, you're in for a shock. It's still early but the 2014 draft is looking like a shocker. 'Piss poor' is the phrase that comes to mind. Yet there's one area with a handful of talented players that are all going to go early -- offensive tackle. They will all get over drafted because save for a handful of studs, this is shaping up to be one of the least exciting drafts in a while. And teams will fall back on getting a decent tackle early.

The one guy I kind of have my eye on for Seattle as a RT in round one (and I hate drafting RT's early) is James Hurst at UNC. Not an explosive athlete. Kind of a lunch pail to work type. But even he might get over drafted. And I'm not sure it's this regime's style to settle for a guy like that without difference making physical skills.

Personally, I'm happy to give the young guys we already have a chance to shine. Michael Bowie and Alvin Bailey are on the roster for a reason and it isn't just temporary depth.

Attyla the Hawk · Oct 3, 2013

theENGLISHseahawk":1vp34gnm said:
You can't go back and get Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson. Move on. Besides, apart from Jones and Hutch, how much better exactly is Sean Locklear, Robbie Tobeck and Chris Gray compared to the current group? Or more specifically, how good would they have looked if Jones and Hutch got injured at the same time (see: Okung/Unger).

What's more the NFL has changed with offensive tackles getting WAY over drafted. Three in the top four picks last year. Eric Fisher goes first overall because he's pretty athletic for the position. Lane Johnson goes 4th overall because he looked athletic at the combine.

If you're expecting a great right tackle to be waiting for Seattle in the late first round, you're in for a shock. It's still early but the 2014 draft is looking like a shocker.

In 1997 we moved up 6 spots to get Walter Jones. I agree its not likely a great one drops to the end of the round. If he does drop, I'd be comfortable aggressively trading up for Antonio Richardson if it came at the Eric Reid price. Of all the first round guys, I see him as undervalued early on. But not enough to fall to us.

It is a different league now where pass rushers are aligned on both sides. Teams have been over drafting athletes to double up pressure from both ends for a long while now. And to great success because of the proliferation of 3-4 wide formations and 11 formations with a joker TE out wide.

Of all of the units, it's the OL that is struggling the very most. And I suspect you might agree that we likely won't reup the veteran contracts expiring this year. So even if one doesn't see the merit of drafting an OL early -- we are going to need talent there. Bowie and Bailey look good. But that bet needs to be hedged. Because we have a franchise QBs health in the pot. One whose value is tied heavily to mobility. The need to protect him is disproportionately high.

Additionally, I suspect we won't resign Carpenter either. So it's reasonable to expect it to take more than one season to roll over the line.

cover-2 · Oct 3, 2013

I think we should draft more towards the offensive side of the ball, we have a lot of key defensive players that we need to re-sign. I'm good with cutting either Sidney Rice or Zach Miller. As much as I like Breno Giacomini I just don't see us re-signing him, which is why I could see us drafting an OT in the 1st or 2nd round. With Carpenter not having the discipline to keep his weight in check, personally has made me gun shy when it come to drafting prospects to have shown problems keeping their weight in check. So I don't want any part of Miami RT Seantrel Henderson or Tennessee "Tiny" Richardson. Henderson is a RT only and if he struggles at RT in the NFL he is just too tall to move inside to guard and I have the same concerns with Richardson. If we do take a o-lineman in the 1st round then I would prefer Florida St (LT) Cameron Ervin or maybe UNC (OT) James Hurst.

cover-2 · Oct 3, 2013

theENGLISHseahawk":ta0y493b said:
Personally, I'm happy to give the young guys we already have a chance to shine. Michael Bowie and Alvin Bailey are on the roster for a reason and it isn't just temporary depth.

I'm all for letting the young o-lineman proving themselves and hopefully one of them will be a late round gem. I am interested in your opinion of some prospects that may be available late in the 1st round that you like or that fit the Seahawks. IMO there have been a handful of prospects that I am a little disappointed with their play so far and I see their draft stock slipping because of it, but that could be had late in the 1st round because of their underwhelming performance to this point of the season. Who are your 5 most intriguing prospects for the Seahawks in the late 1st round? Or if you want to address that question or write an article about that topic on your blog, then just provide a link.

Post Texans game: Biggest draft needs?

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