I would be surprised if DeAndre Hopkins ends up a Seahawk

kearly

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DeAndre Hopkins is one of my favorite players in the draft, but today's combine performance proved that he is the near total opposite of the kind of player John Schneider targets at WR in the draft.

Golden Tate: Fast (4.42 forty), quick, elusive, undeveloped,
Kris Durham: Fast for his size (4.46 forty), tall, undeveloped, low number of starts
Doug Baldwin: Fast for a UDFA (4.49), quick, moderately low number of starts

Schneider recently revealed that his scouting department first evaluates by athleticism before later evaluating on tape and team fit. Seattle tends to draft athletes first, trusting their coaching staff for their ability to coach up players. Tate and Durham were both undeveloped, and while Baldwin had some polish he didn't see significant reps until his final season. All of them were fast in a straight line and had quick feet that could help them change directions very well.

Schneider learned his craft in Green Bay, and if you look at WRs they drafted you will see a similar trend- speed and YAC ability first and foremost. Randall Cobb ran a 4.39 forty. Greg Jennings a 4.42. Donald Driver a 4.45. Jordy Nelson a 4.51. James Jones a 4.54 (listed 4.59 some places).

Hopkins is clutch, polished, and experienced. He's a really good player, but he's more of a football player than an athlete (he ran a 4.57 time today, which is about what I would have guessed he'd run). I think the world of Hopkins, but even I know that he doesn't have a ton of untapped potential. While Hopkins is really good, he's one of those "what you see is what you get" players. I think Seattle likes drafting players who's best football is still ahead of them, and that may even mean drafting players who might have an issue or two on tape but have special upside if they figure it out.

Being raw is not a requirement, as Doug Baldwin shows. I think a more accurate statement would be that polish factors so much less than potential that it ends up being overshadowed in the evaluation. You strip away Hopkins clutchness and savvy, and you are left with a pretty average NFL WR. If you evaluated a WR with polish mattering more, you'd love Hopkins, but if you evaluated a WR from the vantage point of believing athleticism matters more, you'd merely like him.

I am not basing this opinion on a sub-par forty time, but his combine performance has served to confirm something that I have suspected about Hopkins' athleticism. He doesn't get high in the air in football games and there is usually a decent though not ironclad connection between how high a player jumps and how explosive they are.

I think the player that really helped himself out today in terms of boosting his chances with Seattle was Ryan Swope. When I started watching his tape more closely several days ago I noticed that he had very quick feet and was almost like a poor-man's Golden Tate after the catch. I already knew he was an excellent deep threat. I knew he was faster than people thought. I didn't know he'd be that fast though. Running a 4.34 in a 6'0" 205 pound body is pretty uncommon- you don't see that every day especially for a WR with tape as good as his. Again, hate to play the race card, but if he isn't white I think the conversation about him would have been very different from the start. Certain positions, like white WRs and black QBs will always have to battle stereotypes.

Cordarrelle Patterson is another player I'd watch. He's more of a "moves" player after the catch than a burner, but 4.42 in a 6'2" body is still pretty damn good. Seattle loves players that can make moves after the catch anyway. He's raw but I don't think Seattle cares.

Keenan Allen didn't run, but if he posts a good time at his pro-day I imagine he'd be high on the board as well. He's very similar to Golden Tate after the catch. You'll notice that I will refer to Tate often in this post. I think he's kind of the classic example for what this FO looks for in a WR prospect.

Marcus Wheaton helped himself by running a 4.45. That's definitely fast enough and his good tape can only help him. Pac-12 connection.

Keep an eye on Kenny Stills. After the catch he looks like a Golden Tate clone, and like a young Golden Tate he's very undeveloped and often frustrating. Today he ran a 4.38 while standing 6'0.5" tall. He just screams PCJS when I watch him, not because of good tape but because he fits the mold like a glove. Could be a 7th rounder for us.

Justin Hunter might be an option too- he ran a 4.43 while standing nearly 6'4". Then again, when I watch Hunter's game tape he has extremely slow feet- he takes huge strides to produce his speed, so I think he's more of a deep ball guy than an NFL YAC guy.

Corey Fuller (4.43) and perhaps Chris Gragg (WR/TE hybrid who ran 4.50) might have raised their stock with Seattle as well.

My guess is that Seattle's big board at WR starts off Patterson, Allen, and Swope (edit: also, Austin is probably up there too). Maybe not in that order, but I think it starts with those three. I wouldn't overlook Swope. He checks every box Seattle needs (among them he's a great competitor), has great tape, and pretty much sealed the deal today with a 4.34 forty and a 37" vertical. I'm really curious to hear where Swope's draft stock will end up after this weekend. He NEVER should have been a 4th rounder, and that was before what he did today.
 

SuperHawks

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Pretty sure every team's WR board starts with Patterson and unfortunately unless we're planning on moving up 15 or so spots, he's a pipe dream for the Hawks. Swope is intriguing though, that's for sure.
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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I think you're almost certainly right about Hopkins, which is kind of a shame. But it is what it is. Also think Swope will be right up there but I wonder what round they'll grade him. He had a surprisingly middling season in 2012 despite the crazy offensive production at Texas A&M. He had four games with one or two catches and four games with less than 20 yards. If he's there in R4, which I think I doubt, then he looks very Seahawky. I want to say he's a third rounder right now. Not sure how I feel about him in that range.

One place I disagree is Keenan Allen, because I think he'd run a 4.6 today. At best a time similar to Hopkins. And given Allen has smaller hands and reach and only one inch in height on Hopkins, I don't think he'd be a great option.

I suspect if the Seahawks do go for a pass catcher in R1 it'll be a tight end, but I'm more convinced then ever today that they'll go defense early.
 

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IMO, the sample size is too small to know what Seattle is looking for in a receiver.

We've seen players drafted both raw and polished, athlete and football player. And each side of the spectrum have worked out and failed.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Recon_Hawk":bvdh3em2 said:
IMO, the sample size is too small to know what Seattle is looking for in a receiver.

We've seen players drafted both raw and polished, athlete and football player. And each side of the spectrum have worked out and failed.

Durham and Tate are the only players we've drafted, and both were raw. The one commonality across the board is speed and quickness. You look at Green Bay, it's essentially the same thing, and you know that's where he's getting the philosophy from.

Tuinei is the only slow WR they brought in from the draft process, but he would have been very fast for a TE. There was talk they might try to convert him, so even there, speed was a potential plus.
 
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kearly

kearly

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theENGLISHseahawk":1s9fg3ac said:
One place I disagree is Keenan Allen, because I think he'd run a 4.6 today.

No way he'll be that slow. I'm guessing he'll go 4.45 to 4.55 range. His field velocity is identical to Stedman Bailey's, IMO.

As far as Swope, he had almost 1000 yards last year catching passes from a freshman QB that had 1410 rushing yards. Manziel is awesome, but he kind of likes to tuck and run. Just a little bit I'd say.

Subconsciously I've been looking for reasons to not grade Swope among the top WRs, but now I think I might have run out of excuses to overlook him.
 

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kearly":brkhml5p said:
theENGLISHseahawk":brkhml5p said:
One place I disagree is Keenan Allen, because I think he'd run a 4.6 today.

No way he'll be that slow. I'm guessing he'll go 4.45 to 4.55 range. His field velocity is identical to Stedman Bailey's, IMO.

As far as Swope, he had almost 1000 yards last year catching passes from a QB that had 1410 rushing yards. Manziel is awesome, but he kind of likes to tuck and run. Just a little bit I'd say.

Allen ran a 4.57 in high school at 190lbs. He's 206lbs now. During recruitment, a lack of great speed was often cited and it's one of the reasons Nick Saban wanted to play him at safety at Alabama.

Of course, he could've improved upon that time. But I've not seen anything to suggest he's suddenly a 4.4 guy on tape.
 
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kearly

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Maybe you've heard this term: "BIGGER FASTER STRONGER." When I played in division II, I was an offensive lineman and I even I was getting training on speed optimization techniques. That combined with many years of college level conditioning and workouts, he'll be far more of an athlete now than he was then. Speed is partially a factor of lower body quick twitch strength (how many pounds per square inch of force on the push off combined with pace), you can't teach it but it can be optimized. Maybe your legs can only move so many times per minute, but if you explode 2 more inches per leg move, it will increase your speed. It's very common for athletes to gain size AND speed compared to their pre-athlete levels.
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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As I said, maybe he has improved. Or maybe he's just naturally a 4.5/4.6 guy? Could easily go either way. In my view, he's still a 4.5/4.6 guy on tape. We'll never know because he decided not to work out because he's still injured (apparently). Been a long 'knee strain' this...
 
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kearly

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Bailey ran a 4.51. That's about what I'm expecting. 4.40 and 4.60 would surprise me.
 

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kearly":2m81w9h8 said:
Recon_Hawk":2m81w9h8 said:
IMO, the sample size is too small to know what Seattle is looking for in a receiver.

We've seen players drafted both raw and polished, athlete and football player. And each side of the spectrum have worked out and failed.

Durham and Tate are the only players we've drafted, and both were raw. The one commonality across the board is speed and quickness. You look at Green Bay, it's essentially the same thing, and you know that's where he's getting the philosophy from.

Tuinei is the only slow WR they brought in from the draft process, but he would have been very fast for a TE. There was talk they might try to convert him, so even there, speed was a potential plus.

I don't disagree that they want speed and quickness, but only two picks at one position over 3 years isn't enough for me to think they automatically pass on those who don't fit that category. (they've drafted "football players" at other positions and liked both Mike Williams and Obo enough to resign them. Neither quick or fast)

Durham was a gamble with a mid-round pick and Tate was considered a value pick in the late second (and took 3 years to develop). If we're talking receivers in the first round, who's to say they don't want polish and consistency versus another risky, development pick at receiver?
 

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kearly":15uwtmly said:
Bailey ran a 4.51. That's about what I'm expecting. 4.40 and 4.60 would surprise me.
4.5 was what I see on tape, too. And how some of these receivers at the combine ran (who I didn't think as fast), it wouldn't surprise me to see him run in the late 4.4s.

No way he runs a 4.6
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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Recon_Hawk":p09z5cfy said:
No way he runs a 4.6

I've read the words "No way" a lot today on this forum.

And I don't think on any occasion it's been justified.
 

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I was really disappointed that Aaron Dobson from Marshall did not participate in the 40 today....he has smaller hands than I had hoped, but seems to fit the "raw" athlete mold you are referring to.
 

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theENGLISHseahawk":1263n9qr said:
Recon_Hawk":1263n9qr said:
No way he runs a 4.6

I've read the words "No way" a lot today on this forum.

And I don't think on any occasion it's been justified.

Of course it's not when you disagree with it, but we all see different things.

I've read your work enough to see you've thrown out definitive statements equivalent to "no way" in similar instances that I would disagree with, but in your opinion, it is justified because you have total belief in what you say.

Same with me and Allen. I've seen him play the last two seasons and have compared him to the receivers of this class and their speed. He's not as slow as you make him out to be.

But that's cool. Allen still has his pro-day. We'll see then.
 
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kearly

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theENGLISHseahawk":3itb9lqk said:
Recon_Hawk":3itb9lqk said:
No way he runs a 4.6

I've read the words "No way" a lot today on this forum.

And I don't think on any occasion it's been justified.

I would personally find it surprising if he ran a 4.6. Guys that run that slow don't make people miss the way Allen does. The eyeball test isn't perfect when it comes to speed, but he looks dead exactly the same as Bailey to my eye in terms of field velocity.

Scouts and Draftniks will fall into a hive mentality and make misjudgements from time to time. That said, I don't think there would the near unanimous agreement that Allen is a first round pick if they thought he looked "4.6" fast on tape. Granted, I agree with you that Allen is over-rated, I'd grade him mid-2nd. Maybe. But he's faster than 4.6 and he moves well. Even I'll give him that.

I think it was a calculated move by Allen not to run today. Pro-day 40 times tend to be faster, typically .03 to .05 faster on average I would guess. He knows that his stock is tied to his athleticism, so even running a 4.50 could probably cost him money.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Recon_Hawk":1iz6cp5u said:
I don't disagree that they want speed and quickness, but only two picks at one position over 3 years isn't enough for me to think they automatically pass on those who don't fit that category.

Well if you count UDFA's like Baldwin, Bates, Kearse, and Tuinei, and add them to Tate and Durham, then you'd have five of six WR that posted good 40 times and the one who didn't might have been signed as an experiment as a fast TE.

Green Bay's model (which influenced John Schneider) shows a conclusive process- speed matters. Quickness matters. Other points are negotiable.

Remember how John Schneider disliked last year's WR draft class despite everyone else saying it was great (including me)? The reason was because last year was the year of the big WR, not the year of the fast/quick WR. This year is the year of the fast/quick WR, and now Schneider is showing much greater signs of interest.
 

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Spleenhawk2.0":3qry060p said:
I was really disappointed that Aaron Dobson from Marshall did not participate in the 40 today....he has smaller hands than I had hoped, but seems to fit the "raw" athlete mold you are referring to.

Dobson is on my radar, i mocked him as our 3rd in my pre combine mock.
 

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Recon_Hawk":2017seh1 said:
IMO, the sample size is too small to know what Seattle is looking for in a receiver.

We've seen players drafted both raw and polished, athlete and football player. And each side of the spectrum have worked out and failed.

I went back an looked at all WR's drafted by GB in the last 10 years
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=65863&p=880644#p880644

Size didn't stick out to me, but Mike Williams, Durham, Braylon Edwards, TO, ect all makes me believe they want a 6'2 or bigger guy. Sidney is tall but not very muscular. I think Kennan Allen might be exactly what they want. Swope is a great fit too.
 
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kearly

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Yeah, I think they are looking for a jump ball type weapon to help their vertical game and redzone offense. Those types tend to be tall. Tyler Eifert is hands down the best in the draft for this category, though I'm not sure Seattle would draft TE that early. Swope is 6'0" with a 37" vert and won his share of deep balls in college. Justin Hunter could make sense too, not much of a YAC guy but he's fast, tall, and has length, kind of a classic deep ball WR.
 

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