Sorry for the long response time. I was on a business trip and posting a message on an android longer than 15 words long was agony- it's like typing with your toes.
Scottemojo wrote:I think these guys have a few positions they won't take in the first round unless the talent is outstanding for that position. Receiver and DT I would put in that category, simply because they have shown a tendency to look at free agents first at those positions. It isn't because of value either, it is because they don't like to take first rounders who probably won't contribute right away, and with few exceptions receivers and defensive tackles seem to struggle that first season. Thus, a seeming bias towards free agents. Where value kicks in is the draftee measured against the depth of his class. You mention Richardson, an outstanding player. If he is there at 25 I imagine Schneider would be all over that pick, and this thread will look pretty dumb. I think we both suspect Richardson will be long gone. So yeah, me saying they don't like to take DTs in the first round is a bit thick.
Well, for all we know, they might grade Kawann Short or Sly Williams higher than Sheldon Richardson. Which isn't as insane as you might think- I've seen one NFL source that recently had Williams as his #2 DT (behind Lotulelei). It's very possible the Seahawks might like the value at #25 whether Richardson is there or not.
Scottemojo wrote:You mention Carpenter and Irvin, but you have to take into account that in addition to filling a need with those picks, they tried to trade back instead of taking Carpenter, and they did trade back with Irvin. They almost traded back a second time with Irvin. The Carpenter pick was Cable's first year, and I am pretty sure Cable looked at the 2010 squad and told Pete there was just no chance that group could be made to work, we have to fix this Effer now. Not enough nasty. I see the first three rounds of 2011 as somewhat desperate, especially with the Whitehurst 3rd round pick being absent. IF you haven't noticed, Cable gets what Cable wants. Even Sweezy was a Cable thing.
I think the reason we've seen the team go DL in free agency is because average to above average defensive lineman are more common and carry less value league wide than an average to above average offensive lineman. Alan Branch and Jason Jones hit FA and get contracts under $10 million. Ben Grubbs hits FA and gets a $36 million contract. And then you have ridiculous contracts like the ones given for Derrick Dockery, Kris Dielman, Jahri Evans, etc.
While megastar DL tend to get megabucks, the middle of the road DL are often FA bargains. The reason Seattle went after guys like Clemons, Brock, Hargrove, Branch, and Jones wasn't out of disdain for inexperience- it was because Schneider is a moneyball type GM and those were all moneyball type acquisitions, where the quality of the player exceeded the price tag.
Who knows? Maybe the moneyball trend will continue and Seattle will sign Desmond Bryant to a smaller contract than his talent probably deserves. That would be nice. But until that happens, I don't really see any reason to rule out DT in round 1.
As far as trading back- first of all- Seattle was missing picks in both of those years. It's hard to look like a late round genius when you only have 6 picks to work with. Everyone knew that trading down was a huge priority for JS long before the draft happened. Carpenter had nothing to do with that. In the case of Irvin, I think they traded down because they felt Irvin would be safe for 3 selections, and they got a pretty generous offer from Philly to make the move.
Scottemojo wrote:You mention Irvin, which is interesting to me. like or hate the pick, I think Irvin supports my stance. First DE off the board was Irvin, in a weak class. His unique skill, pure speed, matched a Seattle unique need. Will a DT at 25 match the same way? I kind of doubt it.
I don't think a player needs to fit Seattle's profile perfectly to be worthy of a 1st round pick. Tom Cable has a history of drafting or otherwise developing tall, lightweight lineman. Carpenter was not especially tall and was nowhere near lightweight.
Additionally, I am not quite sure what Seattle's "ideal" 3-tech looks like. Do you? My guess is that they view 3-tech as a platoon much like LDE. On rushing downs they seem to prefer a beefy type (Mebane in 2010, Branch in 2011 and 2012) and on 3rd downs they switch to a pass rush specialist (Terrill in 2010, Hargrove in 2011, Jones in 2012). I am pretty sure they drafted Jaye Howard in the hopes that he could unseat Jones as a specialist, but that hasn't happened because they want to play their specialists on rush downs occasionally and Howard is abysmal against the run.
I think the 3-tech need is overblown, personally. Anyone that thinks we must fix our pass rush with a DT and doesn't propose a trade for JJ Watt or Geno Atkins should probably be checked into a madhouse. It'd be like the Mariners trying to add more runs to their offense through third base or catcher when you have a guy at first base hitting .189. 3-tech isn't even the biggest problem on our D-line. It was a slightly above average area last season on a line that saw struggles from Red Bryant and Bruce Irvin, and has a bleak future from Chris Clemons unless you believe AP has rendered ACL's magically irrelevant.