Why I think Seattle will not go DT in the first round.

Scottemojo

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First off, how many pundits were calling this a weak DT class just weeks ago? Now it is being proclaimed as quite deep. But there are valid reasons to think Seattle is not interested in rookie growing pains at that position.

In the time since Pete took over, Seattle has not spent high draft capital at a few positions, one of those being DT. Instead, Seattle has signed a variety of experienced free agents. Some of them were journeymen, some were pricy free agents, some were patchwork, and some were our own, with Mebane and Red both being allowed to hit free agency, get offers from other teams, then being re-signed for pricy deals. Pete does not over or under value the position. Bruce Irvin stands out as the single rookie expected to contribute much on the defensive line. Contrast him with experienced players like Branch, McDonald via trade, Jones, Siaalvi, Clemons via trade, and i forget the name of a couple of others like the 3-4 DE malcontent trade with San Francisco in 2010. Point being, Pete wants more experienced players at DT.

I think Starks will be a no go. Starks is going to get his last bite at free agency this year, and 9 years is a lot of miles on a DT who won't want a one year deal. I think Melton is also a no go. A bit undersized, his game is all about speed and stunts. So far, we have not seen Seattle do much of that on first and 2nd down, and I can't see them signing a pass rush DT for what Melton will command. Besides, I am going to be very surprised if the Bears let Melton go easily.

I keep going back to Dorsey and Bryant. Dorsey was labeled a bust in KC, he simply isn't. 5 years in the league for Dorsey, 4 for Bryant. That is our niche, 2nd deals. DTs are high wear items, I would expect the contracts to be team friendly after only two or three years. Dorsey is a touch above Branch in talents, IMO, and Bryant is a bit more athletic than either Branch or Dorsey.

Will Seattle select a DT in the first three rounds? It would be a first, wouldn't it?
 

SuperHawks

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Seems like Jaye Howard is an afterthought around these parts. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see him blossom this year under Quinn. So for that reason alone I agree with you, let alone the other points you made.
 

McGruff

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Too small a sample size to make sweeping generalizations.

Until last year we'd not drafted a DE or LB or QB early either.

We'll draft where need and value align. In this draft that looks like DL.
 

FlyingGreg

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McGruff":77w8duab said:
Too small a sample size to make sweeping generalizations.

Until last year we'd not drafted a DE or LB or QB early either.

We'll draft where need and value align. In this draft that looks like DL.

I think you missed Scott's point. His opinion is we can't afford to go with a starting rookie DT. As it is, we will already be relying a lot on another young and developing D linemen with Irvin. The preference

It's really a philosophical debate rather than "sweeping generalizations".
 
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Scottemojo

Scottemojo

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McGruff":2lifi4aq said:
Too small a sample size to make sweeping generalizations.

Until last year we'd not drafted a DE or LB or QB early either.

We'll draft where need and value align. In this draft that looks like DL.

Oh, I have been wrong before. Lots. I don't think I will be wrong about this, though. You said we will draft where need and value align, and I don't think there will be much value at DT by pick 25. Taking a defensive tackle at 25 could mean getting the 5th, 6th, 7th rated DT out of the group, and there will be better rated players at other positions of need. The difference between the DTs most likely to be there at 25 and the DTs likely to be there at pick 100 are not that big. Brandon Williams is not that different than Montori Hughes for both talent and amount of gamble, but as of now they look like they could be 2 or 3 rounds different in draft selection. I do think we might see a DT in the third this year. There are a couple of players like Floyd or the Mizzou kid that I could see us taking at 25, but I also don't think they will be there.
On the other hand, the free agents offer little mystery beyond wondering what they will cost. The guy who could stop the run in Kansas City can stop the run in Seattle. Part of my argument is that they place such a premium on stopping the run that they will not gamble on that with a rookie. The pure number of veterans they have cycled through here in just 3 seasons as opposed to the dearth of rookies getting play time at the DT spot would strongly suggest how they feel. IMO.
 

McGruff

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I think the last few years have proven that Carroll will not hesitate to play rookies at ANY position. Quarterback? check. Quarterback of the front seven? Check. Quarterback of the secondary? Check. Left Tackle? Check.

And frankly I don't care if we are talking about the 6th or 7th best DT, as long as the player is an impact player.

I'm not even saying they HAVE to take a DT early. BPA at DT, DE, WR, OL, TE, OLB or CB.
 

Recon_Hawk

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They have really had no problem going through growing pains at other positions since they got here. Quite the opposite really (Sweezy being a good example). I don't think they would view the right DT as a liability, at all, but more a chance to get younger, cheaper, faster, and tougher at the position. It really fits into their whole draft mantra at all the positions on the team so far.
 

Recon_Hawk

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Scottemojo":lua0g5is said:
McGruff":lua0g5is said:
Too small a sample size to make sweeping generalizations.

Until last year we'd not drafted a DE or LB or QB early either.

We'll draft where need and value align. In this draft that looks like DL.

Oh, I have been wrong before. Lots. I don't think I will be wrong about this, though. You said we will draft where need and value align, and I don't think there will be much value at DT by pick 25. Taking a defensive tackle at 25 could mean getting the 5th, 6th, 7th rated DT out of the group, and there will be better rated players at other positions of need. The difference between the DTs most likely to be there at 25 and the DTs likely to be there at pick 100 are not that big. Brandon Williams is not that different than Montori Hughes for both talent and amount of gamble, but as of now they look like they could be 2 or 3 rounds different in draft selection. I do think we might see a DT in the third this year. There are a couple of players like Floyd or the Mizzou kid that I could see us taking at 25, but I also don't think they will be there.
On the other hand, the free agents offer little mystery beyond wondering what they will cost. The guy who could stop the run in Kansas City can stop the run in Seattle. Part of my argument is that they place such a premium on stopping the run that they will not gamble on that with a rookie. The pure number of veterans they have cycled through here in just 3 seasons as opposed to the dearth of rookies getting play time at the DT spot would strongly suggest how they feel. IMO.

No offense, but you should have added this part to you OP. That's really the reason you're saying we're going to go after a veteran DT instead of a early round pick, right? Because at #25, there won't be the right player? Now, that actually makes more sense (right or wrong).
 

FlyingGreg

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Recon_Hawk":71bkx49q said:
They have really had no problem going through growing pains at other positions since they got here. Quite the opposite really (Sweezy being a good example). I don't think they would view the right DT as a liability, at all, but more a chance to get younger, cheaper, faster, and tougher at the position. It really fits into their whole draft mantra at all the positions on the team so far.

I'm not sure Sweezy is a good example. He was a serious weakness for us last season.

He has potential, but he was way over his head - and understandably so switching from defense to offense and getting thrown into the fire.

The fun part is, Pete and John always seem to pull a surprise.
 

Tech Worlds

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They drafted for need with Carpenter. Way over drafted him IMO.

I can see them identifying a glaring need and drafting that guy regardless of his draft stock.

What I am trying to say is if they think they have a need they will use a first to try and fill it even if it looks like crappy value. Don't be surprised if they draft a D lineman that is sketchy as hell if all the good ones are gone.
 

Recon_Hawk

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FlyingGreg":21oz90fv said:
Recon_Hawk":21oz90fv said:
They have really had no problem going through growing pains at other positions since they got here. Quite the opposite really (Sweezy being a good example). I don't think they would view the right DT as a liability, at all, but more a chance to get younger, cheaper, faster, and tougher at the position. It really fits into their whole draft mantra at all the positions on the team so far.

I'm not sure Sweezy is a good example. He was a serious weakness for us last season.

He has potential, but he was way over his head - and understandably so switching from defense to offense and getting thrown into the fire.

The fun part is, Pete and John always seem to pull a surprise.

He's the best example. He was a 7th rd defensive tackle turned offensive guard. Completely undeveloped and raw. He shouldn't have been starting one game, yet Pete starts him even in the playoffs because he isn't worried about "growing pains". He wants to get as young and talented as quick as possible. That means playing young players even if they need work.
 

chris98251

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Conventional thinking and rankings about players needs to be thrown out the window when it comes to us. It's all about how Pete and John see players. We have taken players above where so called experts rank them several times, we have taken players and switched them to new positions. We have taken players that everyone called reaches.

For sake of arguement we could draft a LB and make him a FB or a DE and move him to DT based on the skills they see in players. We also know they use veterans to school young guys in camp and then cut them, they use veterans as stop gaps till a player with the skill set they want is obtained in the draft. Just because we have used players off the waiver wire to patch things does not mean thats how we will operate going forward.

Still using the Green Bay Model as a reference, they build thru the draft, you just can't draft all the players you need in one,two, or three, years. It's a process that could take a decade to completley implement where the depth is developed across the board to replace any starters that are released and or over priced.
 

MontanaHawk05

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McGruff":hfwd4gqb said:
I think the last few years have proven that Carroll will not hesitate to play rookies at ANY position. Quarterback? check. Quarterback of the front seven? Check. Quarterback of the secondary? Check. Left Tackle? Check.

PC didn't have much of a choice with any of those. Okung, Thomas, and Wagner were all top-60 picks at positions where there were no other options. Kind of a no-brainer. So was Wilson once he outplayed Flynn. Will a first-round DT be able to outdo the other options on this team? That's more of an open question.

McGruff":hfwd4gqb said:
And frankly I don't care if we are talking about the 6th or 7th best DT, as long as the player is an impact player.

Right, but 6th/7th best DT's tend not to be impact players.

McGruff":hfwd4gqb said:
I'm not even saying they HAVE to take a DT early. BPA at DT, DE, WR, OL, TE, OLB or CB.

Scott is arriving at his opinion with the same mechanism that you are - going BPA. It's just that you and he disagree on the quality of this DT class and their fit on the Seahawks.
 

Chukarhawk

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Were going DT or WR in the first round. Book it.
 

seahawks875

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I think free agency will have a big impact on where we go in the 1st round. If we can a big receiver like Jared Cook, then we won't go WR/TE round 1. If we can sign a DT like Randy Starks or Desmond Bryant, then we won't go DT in the 1st round. If we can sign a DE like Osi Umenyiora or Dwight Freeney, we won't go DE round 1. I don't think we would go OLB (Khaseem Greene) round 1 unless we signed all three of them, which I don't think we would do because of the price. The 3 guys that I'm looking at in the draft are Jesse Williams, Alex Okafor, and Gavin Escobar. I could see us drafting any one of the 3 round 1, especially Gavin Escobar. I think he could be the next Jimmy Graham and the next Seattle pick that all the experts bash.
 

chris98251

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seahawks875":1u7pfi4v said:
I think free agency will have a big impact on where we go in the 1st round. If we can a big receiver like Jared Cook, then we won't go WR/TE round 1. If we can sign a DT like Randy Starks or Desmond Bryant, then we won't go DT in the 1st round. If we can sign a DE like Osi Umenyiora or Dwight Freeney, we won't go DE round 1. I don't think we would go OLB (Khaseem Greene) round 1 unless we signed all three of them, which I don't think we would do because of the price. The 3 guys that I'm looking at in the draft are Jesse Williams, Alex Okafor, and Gavin Escobar. I could see us drafting any one of the 3 round 1, especially Gavin Escobar. I think he could be the next Jimmy Graham and the next Seattle pick that all the experts bash.

We will not spend big money on guys who have big ass contracts and are waiting for an ambulance call or are just about to collect their NFL social security checks. Get over it, were done with it were not going to do it, TIM RUSKELL IS NOT OUR GM.
 

seahawks875

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chris98251":r8gnzrp6 said:
seahawks875":r8gnzrp6 said:
I think free agency will have a big impact on where we go in the 1st round. If we can a big receiver like Jared Cook, then we won't go WR/TE round 1. If we can sign a DT like Randy Starks or Desmond Bryant, then we won't go DT in the 1st round. If we can sign a DE like Osi Umenyiora or Dwight Freeney, we won't go DE round 1. I don't think we would go OLB (Khaseem Greene) round 1 unless we signed all three of them, which I don't think we would do because of the price. The 3 guys that I'm looking at in the draft are Jesse Williams, Alex Okafor, and Gavin Escobar. I could see us drafting any one of the 3 round 1, especially Gavin Escobar. I think he could be the next Jimmy Graham and the next Seattle pick that all the experts bash.

We will not spend big money on guys who have big ass contracts and are waiting for an ambulance call or are just about to collect their NFL social security checks. Get over it, were done with it were not going to do it, TIM RUSKELL IS NOT OUR GM.
I wasn't saying that we will spend big money in free agency, because of how many young players we have that will soon get big contracts. I think we will get a player on a cheap contract to be a role player, like I could see us signing osi Umenyouria to step in at LEO and rotate with Irvin until Clemons comes back. Then we could go DT and WR/TE in TE first 2 rounds.
 

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I think DE or I am leaning toward LB as time goes by. I would be hesitant to take a LB that high but it depends on who is on the board. Skill position players like the receivers take longer to develop. I see depth added as FEs
 

chris98251

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Osi is a pain in the ass, thinks he's worth the sun and moon, Freeney would at least keep his mouth shut and play. Both are out of the expense range we would want for a rent a player.
 

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