Most over-rated and under-rated prospects (nationally)

Discuss your thoughts about anything draft related. Mocks, College and Pro. Knock yourselves out!!! RATING: PG-13
  • Thought this might be fun.

    Underrated:

    Matt Barkley: People are mocking him in the late 1st or early 2nd round. That is insanity. He's the same QB he was in 2011. Really, you could include Geno Smith and most other QBs on this list as well.

    DeAndre Hopkins: Gil Brandt just mocked Hopkins to Seattle at #25 in his latest mock, then called it a reach. I'd gladly "reach" for Hopkins at #25. Best WR in the draft.

    Matt Scott: He's kind of this year's Chandler Harnish* for me. Lot's of innate talent, not a lot of hype. I had a 3rd round grade on Harnish and be ended up the final pick in the draft.

    Most of this WR class: Robert Woods, Markus Wheaton, Ryan Swope, Cobi Hamilton, etc. Could be some huge steals in rounds 3-5 at WR.

    Gerald Hodges: One of the better LBs in this draft, but is being mocked as late as the 4th round. May have been overlooked by draftniks due to playing on a "death sentence" team.

    John Simon: He has his issues, but the guy can get to the QB. I don't think I'd burn a first on him, but he should be getting more press in a very weak pass rusher class.

    *Matt Scott and Chandler Harnish are very different QBs. I just meant their ability and draft hype seemed very much at odds.

    Over-rated:

    Star Lotulelei: Draft stock wise, he's Ndamukong Suh. I guess if you look like Suh for 1 or 2 snaps a game, you get Suh type draft stock now.

    Manti Te'o: I like Te'o the player. He may not be versatile, but he's instinctive and he's a classic lunch pail type of player that isn't sexy but gets the job done. But he's not worth an early first round pick. MTD has him #4 on their top 100. WTF?

    Johnathan Hankins: I could put a lot of DTs on this list, but I think Hankins deserves special mention. He's talked about as a top 10ish pick, but he offers little pass rush ability and doesn't seem terribly athletic. He's big and strong, and I'm sure he'd be a quality 1-tech, but so would many alternative options in round 2 that are arguably more talented. Never really got the hype for Hankins.

    Khaseem Greene: He's starting to get placed in the 1st round. I'd grade him 4th round. Very little about him is special and he lacks physicality. He's not awful, but he's one of those LBs I'd only draft after all the good LBs were already taken and I HAD to draft a LB.

    Dion Jordan: I like Jordan as an athlete without a position. To me, he's worth a late 1st round pick to a coach like Carroll that would find a role for him. I think it's pretty clear though that Jordan is not an every down NFL DE. He might make it as a 3-4 OLB, but that's unclear. He is being projected as a top 15 pick. I think that's a tad high.

    Barkevious Mingo: Mingo has some talent and some quicks, but he's basically a poor man's Bruce Irvin, with less pass rush ability, and even less bulk/strength. Barring a big change in his size/technique/power, Mingo will only be a situational rusher in the NFL, and probably won't be as good as Irvin even in that role. Now watch Seattle trade up and draft him.

    Keenan Allen: Looks like I was dead wrong about Allen's draft stock. I like Allen, but sniffing the top 10 in most mocks seems high to me.
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    kearly
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  • Funny, upon reading this title the first person that came to my mind as overrated is your first person that you have as underrated.

    Personally I think Matt Barkley is going to be a very, very average quarterback. He'll be better then Mark Sanchez but I dont think he'll ever be a top 12 QB in the league. I dont think he's very athletic and he doesnt play very well when being pressured. I just cannot imagine him being a really good NFL player unless he is surrounded by great players all the way around him.

    Personally if I was a GM i woudl not draft him in the first two rounds. (and before people blame my opinion on me being a Duck, which always happens and is quite annoying, Barkley played great and tore up the Ducks the last few years, so i've seen him at his very best)

    The rest of your list I can pretty much agree with word for word, although I dont know a few of the guys you mentioned.
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  • I think Matt Stafford with less arm is good projection for Barkley (Stafford went #1 overall in a very similar draft class). Like Stafford I expect Barkley to be erratic, but he'll be above average all things considered, and when he's in the zone he'll be unstoppable.

    He's a very different QB from Mark Sanchez. Less mobility, more intelligence, much more experience and much more battle tested.

    I think USC QBs are unfairly blamed as well. Sanchez went to a QB death trap in New York. Maybe he'd suck on most teams, but think about how awful Alex Smith was before Harbaugh showed up (point being that coaches and systems play an enormous role in a QB's fate). Rex Ryan isn't exactly the QB whisperer. The problem with Sanchez is that his team environment actually enourages him to force passes and try to do things above his current ability level. By doing that, they stunted his growth, and eventually ruined him. And no matter what anyone says, his supporting cast has largely been shit, particularly at the skill positions.

    Matt Leinart in Arizona wasn't much better, although in Leinart's case I suspect he really was just a bum. Dude lit it up in college and then seemed way too happy being a lifetime backup. The fire just isn't there.

    Matt Barkley is far superior to Sanchez and I just can't see him folding like Leinart did. Plus, if he goes to the Chiefs at #1, he'll actually be walking into a very nice situation. I think the battle tested aspect of his rocky college career is really going to help him in the NFL. I honestly expect he will have a better rookie year than Luck did since Luck when he was heading into the NFL faced almost zero adversity behind Stanford's all-world line.
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  • From yoru list i really do like Wheaton, I think he's a potential star. Also that Swope dude was making huge plays every time i watched A&M.

    I'm kind of "meh" on Matt Scott. If he gets in the right system I think he could be very good, but for 25 teams in the league I'm not sure he'd even be an option. Like I said in another thread the other day, I wouldnt be surprised to see Chip Kelly swoop him up. And I think Seattle would be a fairly good landing spot for him (although he obviously would never start).
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  • As much as I like Scott, no team in the NFL would draft him to start right now. As a former backup with a high work ethic and good tools/talent, He's the ideal QB for what Seattle is looking for. He strikes me as the kind of QB that would view our situation as an opportunity to maybe raise his stock over the next few years. But you are right, he might not make sense for a lot of other teams, not yet. That said, if he had started 3 seasons instead of 1 and wasn't so underweight, he'd be getting drafted WAY higher. Mike Glennon is pretty similar to Matt Scott and he's now looking like a probable 1st rounder. He had an extra year to build hype and even then his reputation was a bit of a late bloomer this season.

    Every time I watched Tannehill or Manziel on youtube, Swope is just making plays in every game. He may look like kind of a high school intern with his helmet off, but dude can play. I think he'll be a mid round gem much like Ryan Broyles last year.
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  • Great stuff Kearly...

    Totally agree on all points. I'm not a big Barkley fan, but it's ridiculous that he's being treated like a scrub.

    I especially agree about Matt Scott...I truly think he has starting potential in a few years. He has nice mobility, a really great arm, and a nice short stroke to boot. Really all he needs is time to transition to a traditional offense.

    Really glad you mentioned Star Lotuleilei. I've read too much "we need to trade up for him." He's a really nice player with fantastic upside that literally shows up for a few amazing plays a game. Then completely vanishes.

    The one trait I've always placed a premium on, that is really tough to "learn/develop" is consistency. Whether that's effort or performance, consistency is by far the hardest thing to develop because it involves a certain level of both physical and mental discipline. A great example of this are QBs like Jake Locker. Fantastic talent that will look like a John Elway clone for 10 plays a game. Problem is, he will look terrible the 50 other snaps. An overwhelming majority of the time, these types stay inconsistent (it doesn't have to do with a lack of effort btw). It's not impossible to develop, but it's really, really hard to do and I am not sure you want to spend premium draft capital on this type of prospect.

    It's like the old cliche in baseball, the only difference between an average MLBer and an All-Star, is that the All-Star's slumps last a few games, not a few weeks. Again, consistency. We have seen it in spades from RW this year and I think it is a supremely undervalued trait in the NFL draft, considering people get so caught up in measurables and some memorable splash plays.
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  • Ezekiel Ansah.

    Dude has raw physical talent but I see nothing more than a project. He has no skills at all, just a plug so I guess if you need a plug he is your guy. He has no passing rushing skill and can't disengage to save his life. He also doesn't hit hard and has no nasty to his game. Linemen without a bit of nasty, don't usually do good.

    EDIT: forgot to mention if it isn't clear, I think he is in the Overrated category.
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  • As a big SC fan, I really hope Barkley falls to the late 1st.. that way he can be placed in a much better situation. I can just seeing him landing in the Patriots lap and them selecting Brady's eventual suitor (sorry but I don't think Mallett is worth a crap)
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  • I like your analysis on the WRs, there IS going to be a VERY good WR on the board in the 2nd round. I can't help but think we go DT/LB/DE in the 1st and WR in the 2nd.
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  • This is going to draw some ire: Alec Ogletree. He is a big play dude, with athletic skills off the charts. I also think he is extremely over rated. (I know you like him English, I'm not trying to start anything)

    I don't like that he got suspended for 4 games and then declared the same season. I don't like that he doesn't just go fill the gap with any regularity. I think that shows a lack of toughness that would not bode well against teams like the Niners. Bobby Wags is still learning that particular skill, and it is the sole reason Hill is still in the NFL. It certainly isn't Hill's coverage skills keeping him in the NFL

    I know Ogletree shows some coverage skills, but if he doesn't have the want to needed stick his nose into the gaps and take on a guard, he is a 3rd down linebacker. Which we like to call a strong safety :)
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  • Scottemojo wrote:This is going to draw some ire: Alec Ogletree. He is a big play dude, with athletic skills off the charts. I also think he is extremely over rated. (I know you like him English, I'm not trying to start anything)

    I don't like that he got suspended for 4 games and then declared the same season. I don't like that he doesn't just go fill the gap with any regularity. I think that shows a lack of toughness that would not bode well against teams like the Niners. Bobby Wags is still learning that particular skill, and it is the sole reason Hill is still in the NFL. It certainly isn't Hill's coverage skills keeping him in the NFL

    I know Ogletree shows some coverage skills, but if he doesn't have the want to needed stick his nose into the gaps and take on a guard, he is a 3rd down linebacker. Which we like to call a strong safety :)


    I agree with you. I think if Seattle drafted Ogletree, I'd trust their judgement. But the more I watch him, the more I think he's more athlete than LB. Lacks toughness and attitude, and what's worse is that he seems clueless in zone coverage- and Seattle is trying to run zone more often. He's a bit like Kam Chancellor with more speed and less nasty. And probably less coverage ability. Ogletree does scream "PC type player", but that doesn't mean we have to fall in love with him as a LB.

    What I do like about Ogletree is his pass rush ability. I could see him as JP-lite if Seattle wanted to go that direction at WLB. But something tells me they don't. They seem to blitz as a last resort and they cut Korey Toomer who had a very similar skill set last preseason.
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  • JSeahawks wrote:From yoru list i really do like Wheaton, I think he's a potential star. Also that Swope dude was making huge plays every time i watched A&M.

    I'm kind of "meh" on Matt Scott. If he gets in the right system I think he could be very good, but for 25 teams in the league I'm not sure he'd even be an option. Like I said in another thread the other day, I wouldnt be surprised to see Chip Kelly swoop him up. And I think Seattle would be a fairly good landing spot for him (although he obviously would never start).

    I agree with you on Wheaton and Swope from this list. Those were the names that stuck out to me. Wheaton is elusive. Swope is a tough-as-nails WR. Tavon Austin is both of these guys put together and more... in a smaller, yet more explosive, package.
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  • The problem with Gerald Hodges is that he's slow for a LB. His 40 time is what's going to hurt his draft status.
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