JSeahawks wrote:That was kind of my point. The Cougs did what they had to do to get the win, i'm not sure why that needs to be called lucky when they outplayed UW for much of the game.
I think it's pretty lucky when you get some of the plays they got at the times they did. I mean, the missed 35 yarder alone- UW had something like a 92% win probability at that point. To get a miss there- that's lucky. It doesn't mean they didn't deserve to win.
UW got lucky too, but WSU's luck was more emphatic and game deciding. Their luck was more clutch. There were three times in this game where WSU definitely loses or probably loses if that play had gone the way it normally would. The shoulda been monster sack that turned 2nd and 30 from their own 35 to first and goal. The shoulda been pick 6 on third and 13 that turned into a 30 yard catch. The chip shot game winning field goal that Coons butchered. If even ONE of those things happens the way it would usually happen, WSU loses. And that's not even talking about the phantom PI on the 2 point conversion. Without that, WSU probably loses too.
deserve to win the game. If it read otherwise then I should have written it better. It is possible to be better than the other team and still win through pure luck. That's what WSU did tonight. Yes, UW got lucky too, but when WSU needed a huge break (or else), they got it. I don't think fangraphs does college football, but I would guess that WSU's combined WPA from their lucky breaks was 3 or 4 times larger than UW on theirs. UW's lucky breaks helped their cause. WSU's lucky breaks saved them from certain defeat and ultimately sprung them to victory. It was definitely the luckiest comeback finish I've seen in a long time.
They clearly outplayed UW for all but the 3rd quarter, and they had 97 yards more offense. It was an entertaining game, but I didn't really enjoy it much, even when I thought UW was going to win. I was saying to my brother early in the 4th that I felt sorry for WSU because they didn't deserve to be down at all much less 28-10.
That said, I think most of you would agree with me when I say that both teams played like crap. UW played on roughly a 4-8 level, and WSU played on maybe a 5-7 level. If I knew nothing else, I would have guessed UW was a 4-8 team and WSU was a 5-7 team. Both teams made tons of mistakes, and really without those mistakes the final score is probably something like 10-7. This is why I said in the OP that the '11 and '10 WSU teams would have crushed UW tonight. Those teams hung tough despite the Huskies playing very well in those games.
This isn't about diminishing or downplaying WSU's accomplishment, I'm just saying that it was a horribly played (and horribly officiated) game and WSU was ridiculously fortunate in the 4th quarter. Those are factual statements.
If UW had won, I would have had a writeup talking about how they stole a game and "thank goodness they got WSU this week," basically. UW did not deserve to win. WSU did deserve to win- in the same sense that UW deserved to win over a Nunes led Stanford. WSU at their best would have been destroyed by UW at their best, and UW at it's best would have gotten it's ass kicked by Stanford at it's best.
WSU deserved to win. UW deserved to lose. Justice was served. That's why I don't feel the slightest bit bad about this loss, other than worrying about the future of Keith Price and the UW program.