Early question about 2020

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Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 2:32 am
  • So if I have this correct the Hawks have 10 picks at the moment:
    1st (Seahawks)
    2nd (Seahawks)
    2nd (Frank Clark trade - probably KC's assuming KC will have a better record then SF)
    3rd (Seahawks)
    3rd (Earl Thomas Comp pick)
    4th (Seahawks)
    4th (Justin Coleman Comp pick)
    5th (Seahawks)
    6th (Shamar Stephen comp pick)
    7th (Brett Hundley Comp pick)

    Am I correct? Anybody know?

    I can't wait to see what JS can do with that kind of ammo :)
    Last edited by AlciG on Fri May 03, 2019 5:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
    AlciG
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 3:58 am
  • There's gonna be a Brett Hundley comp pick?
    HawkGA
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 4:00 am
  • Also, I think you have the Clark trade backwards. My understanding was that it is the worse of KC's picks. So likely will be the KC pick in the second round.
    HawkGA
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 5:42 am
  • HawkGA wrote:Also, I think you have the Clark trade backwards. My understanding was that it is the worse of KC's picks. So likely will be the KC pick in the second round.


    You are correct... that's what I intended to write but messed it up :)
    Thanks
    AlciG
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 5:44 am
  • HawkGA wrote:There's gonna be a Brett Hundley comp pick?


    I think a 7th, but I could be mistaken. Trying to get confirmation here that I'm on the right track :)
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 8:38 am
  • Four is the number I've heard bandied about. No idea how they directly tie to which players. I think there is a website that projects comp picks but I don't recall what it is and not sure if they'll bother doing it until after the May 8th deadline or whatever it is for having free agent signings not affect comp picks.
    HawkGA
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Re: Early question about 2020
Fri May 03, 2019 12:24 pm

Re: Early question about 2020
Mon May 06, 2019 3:38 pm
  • The exact round is as of yet unknown. Although projecting this has become a bit of a cottage industry and also very reliable to forecast.

    Usually the hardest ones for forecast are the thresholds for bottom of third vs. top of the 4th round comp pick. However Earl is very much in the middle of the 3rd round comp projection. So safe bet that he remains there. I count

    Richardson
    Bell
    James
    Morse
    Smith
    Alexander

    As all possible 3rd round comp contracts that are of lesser value than Earl's.

    Coleman is similar as there are 6 R4 contracts of lesser value than his. One unknown is whether some of those R3 contracts end up becoming R4. Then it gets a bit dicier.

    The real issue being that there are 3 other contracts that equal Coleman's 9M APY. But Coleman's is considered the best of those equal deals probably based on terms/bonus. The bottom of the R4 contracts are only 50k less APY So they are all fairly close in value. If some R3 slide, it could serve to push all of the 9M deals to R5. Or they may just have a bloated R4 like they did R3 in 2019's draft.

    Each year the thresholds shift a bit relative to past drafts. We won't know until the Winter meeting next March when the league arrives at the final values.

    Right now, it looks like there really are too many R3 and R4 contracts to consider as safe for either threshold.

    Last year there were 7 R3 comp picks. There are something like 9 uncanceled deals forecast as R3 comps for next year,

    Likewise, there were only 4 R4 comp picks awarded last year. There are 15 for the upcoming year. 6 of those have already been canceled out due to UFAs signed to offset. Still 9 is WAY more than we saw in 2019's draft by almost a factor of 2.

    I expect the forecasts to be off a bit. It may be wishful thinking that the NFL will allot over half of the total comp picks before R5 begins.

    I'd predict that Earl remains R3. Coleman ends up pushed to the very top of R5.
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Re: Early question about 2020
Tue May 07, 2019 6:32 pm
  • I think you are correct.
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Re: Early question about 2020
Sat May 18, 2019 10:05 am
  • Here's the latest projection from overthecap.com

    Note that the 4th round comp pick for losing Justin Coleman looks safe at this time, and that the comp pick for losing Mike Davis is at the very top of the pack in the 7th round. Still a projection but it's looking good for us.
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Re: Early question about 2020
Sat May 18, 2019 4:41 pm
  • So the 7th round comp pick is for Mike Davis, not Hundley? That probably makes more sense. Would have been laughable to get on for Hundley.
    HawkGA
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Re: Early question about 2020
Sat May 18, 2019 7:47 pm
  • HawkGA wrote:So the 7th round comp pick is for Mike Davis, not Hundley? That probably makes more sense. Would have been laughable to get on for Hundley.


    I know nothing, but i think we had 2 comp picks in the 7th. One for Hundley, one for Mike Davis. But we forfeit one for signing Iupati?
    ivotuk
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Re: Early question about 2020
Wed May 22, 2019 9:24 am
  • ivotuk wrote:
    HawkGA wrote:So the 7th round comp pick is for Mike Davis, not Hundley? That probably makes more sense. Would have been laughable to get on for Hundley.


    I know nothing, but i think we had 2 comp picks in the 7th. One for Hundley, one for Mike Davis. But we forfeit one for signing Iupati?

    Not quite.

    The latest projection by overthecap.com speculates that Iupati may not come into play at all because ARI restructured his contract prior ro the start of the 20118 season to turn 2019 into a voided year.

    Either way we still get a 7th round comp pick. With Iupati out of the picture we get a much higher one.

    Details are located in the article that I linked three posts above this one.
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