The Red Herring theory

kearly

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As we all know, draft season is lying season. For example, did Pete Carroll publicly gush about Sam Bradford or Johnny Manziel because he really liked them, or because he wanted them to be drafted before Seattle's pick- which would have potentially pushed a different player that Seattle coveted down the board?

I think this kind of fake love happens all the time. And I would even guess that a substantial percentage of team visits with players are red herrings. They don't like the player or they feel that player doesn't fit their system, but they want to throw other teams off the scent or better yet, get those undesired players over-drafted by someone else.

I have a theory. I'll be up front and say that this theory is not air-tight, but I think there might be something to it. What if there was a relationship between the number of red herrings or the amount of energy expended on red herrings, as it relates to Seattle's first round pick?

In 2011, Seattle had the #25 pick and was believed to be looking at offensive or defensive line. The rumors we heard linked Seattle to players like Nate Solder or Danny Watkins. The Watkins rumors were especially strong, IIRC. The rumors for OL dominated the Seahawks rumor mill that year, and as it turned out, Seattle did draft an OL. One that wasn't rumored about pretty much at all.

In 2012, Seattle had the #12 pick and were thought to be looking for a pass rusher, but had enough needs that they could be flexible with that pick. Seattle met with just about every pass rusher under the sun, and the rumors of their interest in Alabama pass rusher Courtney Upshaw were popping up everywhere. This was curious since Upshaw was not very athletic and didn't seem to fit the Seahawk mold at all, in fact he seemed like a 3-4 OLB type. Ultimately, Seattle did draft a pass rusher in the 1st round by making a surprise pick for Bruce Irvin.

The point is, in both those years if you wanted to know which position Seattle was drafting in round one, all you had to do was look at which area had the most bullshitting going on.

So this year, with Seattle meeting with or being rumored to have interest in tons of 1st/2nd round pass rushers, including a lot of guys that don't seem to fit the Seahawk mold, it makes me think that Seattle is leaning towards DL in round one. Especially since some of the DL they've met with, such as Shaq Lawson, don't seem to fit the PCJS model at all (fittingly, Lawson has drawn comparisons to Courtney Upshaw).

On the flipside, Seattle has only met with one offensive lineman who's considered a first rounder (Germain Ifedi). And counting Ifedi as a 1st rounder is a bit generous, as some mocks have him slipping well into round 2. There does not appear to be any kind of campaign of misinformation at OL in the first round for Seattle.

Of all the DL to be linked to Seattle, many of them don't seem to fit Seattle's previously established profiles, which means that either Seattle changed the way they do business in the draft, or it means they are using misdirection to cover their tracks for the DL they really want.

So based on this, I am pretty sure that Seattle wants to go DL in round one, and then probably go OL in round 2.

(The one caveat I'd put on this theory is that I think Seattle's silence with regards to Jason Spriggs seems extremely suspicious to me. He screams Seahawks more than any offensive lineman in this entire draft, and yet Seattle hasn't shown any interest in him yet. That's very suspicious to me.)

Edit: to be clear, I don't think this in any way guarantees that Seattle is hell bent on going DL in round one, or even that their top three options are all DL players. I think it would be more accurate to say that their #1 overall target is probably a DL, and the reason that they seem to be muddying the waters so much at DL is likely in an attempt to get this targeted player.
 

EverydayImRusselin

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This all makes sense, especially in regards to the OL needs. JS has stated Webb and Gilliam are basically locked in as starters. All of the top OL talent are tackles this year. The interior OL depth is great in rounds 2-4. Makes a ton of sense for them to go DL first. I am going to stick by my Andrew Billings pick under your Red Herring theory. Not a lot of smoke around him and I see a potential monser DT in the making with the right coaching.
 
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kearly

kearly

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It wouldn't shock me at all if BIllings was their guy. He doesn't have Seahawky measurements, but he happens to be one of the few DL in this draft with a rare skillset. He also plays very aggressively, which Pete will like.
 

Seahawkfan80

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A great case in theorums. If this one works out as most other theorums, distraction is a fantastic tool. Yes, it could be all snow job...but Deception is a fantastic tool to dissuade others from your actual prize. I recall a tool used to attain a certain Qb......
 

Ozzy

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Kearly who would you guess is the target if the theory is true?
 

Hawkscanner

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I totally buy your theory Kip -- I've noted this kind of BS misdirection for years when it comes to Carroll and the Seahawks. I'd say that they spend months doing this leading up to the draft.

I've been listening to Mike Holmgren on KJR recently and he puts it quite bluntly, "Everybody is lying this time of year. Everybody."

You mentioned Seattle's silence when it comes to Jason Spriggs? Here's what wouldn't shock me whatsoever. You know how all we seemed to have heard is how the Seahawks are pleased with Gary Gilliam? It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if the Gilliam lovefest, coupled with visits with Germain Ifedi (and NO visit or even mention of Jason Spriggs) were really a smokescreen to throw teams off from the fact that Spriggs is actually their guy at #26. Wouldn't be surprised whatsoever. Well, we'll know come Thursday, that's for sure.
 

titan3131

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Hawkscanner":2po0mko5 said:
I totally buy your theory Kip -- I've noted this kind of BS misdirection for years when it comes to Carroll and the Seahawks. I'd say that they spend months doing this leading up to the draft.

I've been listening to Mike Holmgren on KJR recently and he puts it quite bluntly, "Everybody is lying this time of year. Everybody."

You mentioned Seattle's silence when it comes to Jason Spriggs? Here's what wouldn't shock me whatsoever. You know how all we seemed to have heard is how the Seahawks are pleased with Gary Gilliam? It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if the Gilliam lovefest, coupled with visits with Germain Ifedi (and NO visit or even mention of Jason Spriggs) were really a smokescreen to throw teams off from the fact that Spriggs is actually their guy at #26. Wouldn't be surprised whatsoever. Well, we'll know come Thursday, that's for sure.

I'm willing to bet anything it's not a olinemen with our #1 pick. My car my house my wife...

Honestly I think we are trading down as much as we can and grabbing nkemdiche. Think of it like trading our 1st for a wildcard that has a 50 50 chance of being a game breaker. But instead of losing a 3rd we get one... Its just like the moves we have made 2 years in a row but better...
 

QuahHawk

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Spriggs is the only OL in the first I would get excited about. I feel like DT and our interior OL are bigger needs but Springs will be an Above avg NFL OT and would be hard to pass up.

What does this theory say about the RB's we are looking at?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Hawkscanner

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titan3131":1buie2i4 said:
Hawkscanner":1buie2i4 said:
I totally buy your theory Kip -- I've noted this kind of BS misdirection for years when it comes to Carroll and the Seahawks. I'd say that they spend months doing this leading up to the draft.

I've been listening to Mike Holmgren on KJR recently and he puts it quite bluntly, "Everybody is lying this time of year. Everybody."

You mentioned Seattle's silence when it comes to Jason Spriggs? Here's what wouldn't shock me whatsoever. You know how all we seemed to have heard is how the Seahawks are pleased with Gary Gilliam? It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if the Gilliam lovefest, coupled with visits with Germain Ifedi (and NO visit or even mention of Jason Spriggs) were really a smokescreen to throw teams off from the fact that Spriggs is actually their guy at #26. Wouldn't be surprised whatsoever. Well, we'll know come Thursday, that's for sure.

titan3131":1buie2i4 said:
I'm willing to bet anything it's not a olinemen with our #1 pick. My car my house my wife...

Is she pretty? What kind of car? :p (J/K) ;)

titan3131":1buie2i4 said:
Honestly I think we are trading down as much as we can and grabbing nkemdiche.
[youtube]7FPELc1wEvk[/youtube]
 

titan3131

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I was thinking we might even trade out of 56 as well. And then we have a lot of ammo to snag the round 3 guys.

The money round this year imo.
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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On Billings -- I think it's hard to imagine SEA takes a guy who might be a two-down nose who currently struggles with gap discipline in R1.

Although I think Kip is on to something. I think they will take a player at a position of need (OL, DL) but it won't necessarily be someone anyone expects.
 

Scottemojo

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I love the lying season. Though in the case of the Hawks, it feels more like sins of omission season.

Feels to me like a lot of the jabbering bout Myles Jack and his knee is teams trying to get him to fall.
 

pehawk

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Have the Hawks had any public admirations yet? Any Vance McDonald techniques going on?
 

McGruff

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The only concrete statement I can recall this year is "Seattle loves Rankins and gIves hI'm a first round grade."

That was when he was widely thought to be a 3rd round pick.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Did this occur in 2014 (when we knew we were going WR).

We also took a guy we didn't have a lot of expectation to get (Richardson). He was a surprise pick and one we obviously wanted above other alternatives. Did we have a lot of misdirection candidates then too?
 

ImTheScientist

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Assuming they don't take a Punter, Kicker, FB and QB you have a 15% chance of being correct even if your theory is junk.
 

Yxes1122

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Attyla the Hawk":wvnavssi said:
Did this occur in 2014 (when we knew we were going WR).

We also took a guy we didn't have a lot of expectation to get (Richardson). He was a surprise pick and one we obviously wanted above other alternatives. Did we have a lot of misdirection candidates then too?


I think Seattle took several WR visits in 2014. I specifically remember being convinced Cody Latimer was going to be the guy. I think they also met with Davante Adams and alot of talk surrounding him too.
 

Attyla the Hawk

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Yxes1122":8pzahf84 said:
Attyla the Hawk":8pzahf84 said:
Did this occur in 2014 (when we knew we were going WR).

We also took a guy we didn't have a lot of expectation to get (Richardson). He was a surprise pick and one we obviously wanted above other alternatives. Did we have a lot of misdirection candidates then too?


I think Seattle took several WR visits in 2014. I specifically remember being convinced Cody Latimer was going to be the guy. I think they also met with Davante Adams and alot of talk surrounding him too.

Yeah, but those guys were expected to go about where they did. Why smokescreen with guys that are going after where you're picking?

It seems more reasonable to think we were just simply doing due dilligence with all guys (Matthews/Latimer/Adams/Robinson).

In that case, about the only value in throwing off the scent so to speak would be to give a false impression that our target could slide to later picks and cause teams to not trade up to take them ahead of us.

Seems like an awful lot of effort (and costly use of limited facility visits) for that limited benefit. At least as it pertains to how 2014 turned out.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Attyla the Hawk":5h8qey9i said:
Yeah, but those guys were expected to go about where they did. Why smokescreen with guys that are going after where you're picking?

Both Latimer and Adams were going ahead of Richardson in most mocks.
 

two dog

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Your theory sounds reasonable. I think Spriggs will be gone when the 26th pick happens.
There is scant chance they will take my guy, Ryan Kelly, so defensive line it is.

Unless they trade down, because I don't think Schneider's comments about draft depth
and having 200 players on their draft board are designed to mislead.
Given that perceived depth, trading down may have been the intent all the time if they
did not deem anyone likely to be available at 26 to be a first round talent.

Of course you have to find a trade partner and that's not always easy.
Also, funny things happen in the draft and a guy they really like but did not expect to be
available suddenly is there at 26.

The quickening man, can you feel it?
 
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