What the big boards say about Seattle's opportunities

A caveat, big boards are just estimations and hardly scientific. And in this case, I don't even think they've been properly adjusted post-combine yet. It would probably be a good idea to remake this topic in 6 weeks and see then. But for now...

Here are two random big boards for the 2016 draft. The first is from DraftTek, and the 2nd is from CBS.

I try not to predict anything Seattle does after round 4, but usually in the first four rounds they tend to draft players we've at least heard of. We also don't know the EXACT order since compensatory picks haven't been assigned just yet, but we can probably guess that Seattle would pick around #100 with their 3rd round comp pick, and again around #126 or so in round 4.

Based on these two big boards, here are some of the more interesting names that are still available at each pick (picks are listed in the order they appear on the big board):

Pick 26 (players listed from 26-55)

Tech:

DT Sheldon Rankins
RB Derrick Henry
DE Emmanuel Ogbah
LB Leonard Floyd
OT Shon Coleman
T/G Cody Whitehair
DT Vernon Butler
C Ryan Kelly
OT Jason Spriggs
DE Shawn Oakman
RB Alex Collins

CBS:

LB Leonard Floyd
DE Emmanuel Ogbah
DT Vernon Butler
C Ryan Kelly
T/G Cody Whitehair
OT Shon Coleman
RB Derrick Henry
OT Jason Spriggs
WR Braxton Miller
OT Germain Ifedi


Pick 56 (players listed from 56-89)

Tech:

DL Adolphus Washington
RB Paul Perkins
DT Chris Jones
FS Keanu Neal
SS Miles Killebrew
WR Braxton Miller
C Nick Martin
RB Kenneth Dixon
OT Germain Ifedi
RB Devontae Booker

CBS:

DL Adolphus Washington
RB Alex Collins
OT Le'Raven Clark
RB Devontae Booker
C Nick Martin
DT Chris Jones
RB Kenneth Dixon
SS Miles Killebrew
RB Jordan Howard
G Sebastian Tretola


Pick 90 (players listed from 90-99)

Tech:

C Jack Allen

CBS:

RB Jonathan Williams
DE Shawn Oakman
OT Kyle Murphy


Pick 100 (players listed from 100-125)

Tech:

LB Scooby Wright
T/G Le'Raven Clark
G Sebastian Tretola
DT Maliek Collins
DT Jihad Ward
RB Jordan Howard
G Connor McGovern

CBS:

C Jack Allen
LB Scooby Wright
RB Paul Perkins
DT Javon Hargrave


Pick 126 (players listed from 126 and beyond)

Tech:

G Denver Kirkland
DT Javon Hargrave
RB Jonathan Williams
QB Kevin Hogan
DE Ronald Blair
QB Cardale Jones
C Graham Glasgow
DT Willie Henry
LB Travis Feeney
G Joe Dahl
RB Marshaun Coprich
QB Vernon Adams

CBS:

DT Jihad Ward
G Denver Kirkland
FS Keanu Neal
QB Cardale Jones
DT Ronald Blair
G Conor McGovern
C Graham Glasgow
G Joe Dahl
QB Kevin Hogan
LB Travis Feeney
QB Vernon Adams
RB Marshaun Coprich
DT Willie Henry

Interesting list. Looks like some adjustments will be made though. Kearly, what are your thoughts on Stanford receiver Devon Cajuste? He has great size and his combine numbers were very interesting. He ran a 4.62 40 (probably will improve on pro day ), had a 36" vertical and 123" broad jump. The amazing time was 6.49 in the three cone drill. It was the fastest time at the combine this year and Zach Whitman said it was one of the fastest ever recorded at the combine. He had the 4th highest sparq rating amongst wide receivers and measured at 6'4", 234 lbs with 10 3/4" hands. He looked like a dependable receiver and blocker on film. He'll be a possession guy that's quick across the middle with really good red zone potential. He had 14 td's over the last 3 years. I think his numbers were hampered in part because of Stanford's run heavy system and looked like he was frequently overlooked by Hogan when open. With Kearse likely departing and Richardson's health a concern, do you think the Hawks might consider him in round 4 or 5?

I forgot to add that his 10 yard split was 1.61

Landhawk1":1gw6b05m said:

He had the 4th highest sparq rating amongst wide receivers and measured at 6'4", 234 lbs with 10 3/4" hands.

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Where did you find SPARQ ratings? I've been looking all over for them. Or do you know the formula? If so, I'd love to hear it.

Erebus":10153j3t said:

Landhawk1":10153j3t said:

He had the 4th highest sparq rating amongst wide receivers and measured at 6'4", 234 lbs with 10 3/4" hands.

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Where did you find SPARQ ratings? I've been looking all over for them. Or do you know the formula? If so, I'd love to hear it.

Click to expand...

He only has up the WR & DL but here is the site. http://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/

Based off of those lists here's my draft:

26: OT Shonn Coleman
56: DL: Adolphus Washington
90: DE Shawn Oakmen (this is a luxury pick for me, a year ago he was my biggest draft crush, but he never really lived up to the hype)
100. C Jack Allen (never even heard of him, but we need a center)
126: LB Travis Feeney (although i'm kind of tempted by Cardale Jones. He seems like a guy you could groom and trade for a high pick a couple years down the line)

Based on that

Tek:

1. Coleman
2. Keanu Neal
3a. Connor McGovern
3b. Javon Hargrave
4. Joe Dahl

CBS:

1. Coleman
2. Kenneth Dixon
3a. Connor McGovern
3b. Javon Hargrave
4. Keanu Neal

1. Ogbah or Floyd. Floyd is really growing on me as a pass rush specialist who you hope can mature into a LEO behind Avril.

2. Nick Martin. Just a safe pick at a position of need . . . But DT Chris Jones would be tempting to double dip along the dline.

3. RB jonathan Williams.

3. OL Conner McGovern

4. LB Travis Freeney

McGruff":36vonicl said:

1. Ogbah or Floyd. Floyd is really growing on me as a pass rush specialist who you hope can mature into a LEO behind Avril.

2. Nick Martin. Just a safe pick at a position of need . . . But DT Chris Jones would be tempting to double dip along the dline.

3. RB jonathan Williams.

3. OL Conner McGovern

4. LB Travis Freeney

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I really like your picks here. My top 3 among the realistic options are Ogbah, Coleman, and Floyd.

I think Floyd is the pass rusher everyone hyped Dion Jordan to be. I'm starting to see him rise into the mid-1st round pretty regularly in mock drafts now after the combine he had. Atlanta has the 17th pick, and Floyd would make a ton of sense for Dan Quinn with his pass rush needs. The Jets are a threat at #20. But if he gets past them, there's a decent chance he might reach #26.

I don't know if Martin is a "Cable Guy" or not, but his tape is very good. He's ready to start at center on day one.

I really like Williams a lot, though for me he's plan B after Kenneth Dixon.

McGovern is kind of a Jordan Hill special. I don't love him, but after he's off the board there's a big dropoff to the next guy.

Feeney is a great pick. I guess I'm holding out hope that Seattle can get him in UDFA.

I got the same result from both CBS and Draft tech.

1. DE Emmanuel Ogbah
2. RB Kenneth Dixon
3. T/G Connor McGovern
3. DT Javon Hargrave
4. C Graham Glasgow

Basically, the point of this exercise was to get a feel for where the "ledges" are in this draft. Identifying the exact spots where the talent level suddenly plummets to a lower tier. JS talks about this concept all the time, it wouldn't surprise me if he does these kinds of exercises pre-draft to get a feel for where those ledges are.

It felt like there was a huge talent dropoff between rounds 1 and 2. And another big dropoff between rounds 2 and 3. Starting in round 3, the talent level seems to plateau (there isn't really any difference between the value of the 3rd rounder and the 4th rounder).

Based on this exercise, it feels like an opportune year to trade up in round 2. This draft starts weak, then suddenly starts looking really nice between picks 15-45, then drops suddenly. Getting a second pick in that 15-45 range where draft value is at its strongest this year would be a nice thing to have. As much as I like Kenneth Dixon, I'd trade Dixon and McGovern for Shon Coleman in a heartbeat.

Landhawk1":2tbp5hf7 said:

Interesting list. Looks like some adjustments will be made though. Kearly, what are your thoughts on Stanford receiver Devon Cajuste? He has great size and his combine numbers were very interesting. He ran a 4.62 40 (probably will improve on pro day ), had a 36" vertical and 123" broad jump. The amazing time was 6.49 in the three cone drill. It was the fastest time at the combine this year and Zach Whitman said it was one of the fastest ever recorded at the combine. He had the 4th highest sparq rating amongst wide receivers and measured at 6'4", 234 lbs with 10 3/4" hands. He looked like a dependable receiver and blocker on film. He'll be a possession guy that's quick across the middle with really good red zone potential. He had 14 td's over the last 3 years. I think his numbers were hampered in part because of Stanford's run heavy system and looked like he was frequently overlooked by Hogan when open. With Kearse likely departing and Richardson's health a concern, do you think the Hawks might consider him in round 4 or 5?

I forgot to add that his 10 yard split was 1.61

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Really interesting. Frankly, what I would like to see us get in a WR is someone who knows how to achieve separation. Clearly that is more than just speed, as some WR's who are fast can't seem to get separation (I think Paul Richardson is an example of that) and some WR's who are slow always seem to know how to get open (Allen Robinson, for example). It would be awesome to have a big, dependable receiver with good hands who also had the quickness to achieve separation and get open.

Landhawk1":bbc690q8 said:

Interesting list. Looks like some adjustments will be made though. Kearly, what are your thoughts on Stanford receiver Devon Cajuste? He has great size and his combine numbers were very interesting. He ran a 4.62 40 (probably will improve on pro day ), had a 36" vertical and 123" broad jump. The amazing time was 6.49 in the three cone drill. It was the fastest time at the combine this year and Zach Whitman said it was one of the fastest ever recorded at the combine. He had the 4th highest sparq rating amongst wide receivers and measured at 6'4", 234 lbs with 10 3/4" hands. He looked like a dependable receiver and blocker on film. He'll be a possession guy that's quick across the middle with really good red zone potential. He had 14 td's over the last 3 years. I think his numbers were hampered in part because of Stanford's run heavy system and looked like he was frequently overlooked by Hogan when open. With Kearse likely departing and Richardson's health a concern, do you think the Hawks might consider him in round 4 or 5?

I forgot to add that his 10 yard split was 1.61

Click to expand...

Allen Robinson had very similar measurements. Seattle passed on Robinson multiple times. I think for Seattle they value top speed very highly.

Here is what I came up with on fanspeak using those 2 boards.

Draftek

26: R1P26
WR COREY COLEMAN
BAYLOR
56: R2P25
C NICK MARTIN
NOTRE DAME
90: R3P27
DT AUSTIN JOHNSON
PENN STATE
98: R3P35
OLB ERIC STRIKER
OKLAHOMA
125: R4P26
S T.J. GREEN
CLEMSON
172: R5P33
G JOE DAHL
WASHINGTON ST
215: R6P37
DT WILLIE HENRY
MICHIGAN
223: R7P4
RB MARSHAUN COPRICH
ILLINOIS ST
245: R7P26
QB JEFF DRISKEL
LOUISIANA TECH

Cbssports

26: R1P26
OT JACK CONKLIN
MICHIGAN STATE
56: R2P25
OT GERMAIN IFEDI
TEXAS A&M
90: R3P27
DE CHARLES TAPPER
OKLAHOMA
98: R3P35
DT JAVON HARGRAVE
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
125: R4P26
DT WILLIE HENRY
MICHIGAN
172: R5P33
G JOE DAHL
WASHINGTON STATE
215: R6P37
S T.J. GREEN
CLEMSON
223: R7P4
WR MIKE THOMAS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
245: R7P26
RB MARSHAUN COPRICH
ILLINOIS STATE

This draft definitely has guys available at all levels. In particular at OL. Knowing where other teams value those guys is going to be the tricky part.

Nick Martin was terrific in the Senior Bowl. Would love to see us get him. Jack Conklin would be great to have, but I am skeptical of him falling to us. If he did, I think we should jump on him.

I think Conklin goes in the top half of the first at this point. He tested well enough that teams might buy him as a legit LT.

I'm really not getting the love for Leonard Floyd. I see the effort, but overall the guy plays soft. It's just a feeling I get, but I don't think he really wants to hit people. More that he'd rather be the third guy in on a tackle than the first guy. Watch the Alabama tape. He'd quit by the 3rd quarter. Just didn't want to tackle Derrick Henry anymore after Henry put him on his ass.

The upside is there, but he looks like he needs more time to develop before you put him in a major role.

Recon_Hawk":491qjb90 said:

I'm really not getting the love for Leonard Floyd. I see the effort, but overall the guy plays soft. It's just a feeling I get, but I don't think he really wants to hit people. More that he'd rather be the third guy in on a tackle than the first guy. Watch the Alabama tape. He'd quit by the 3rd quarter. Just didn't want to tackle Derrick Henry anymore after Henry put him on his ass.

The upside is there, but he looks like he needs more time to develop before you put him in a major role.

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He sucks as a LB, but is polished as a pass rusher and explosive for his size. I think he'll have a Chris Clemons type career path.

kearly":35m3z01n said:

Recon_Hawk":35m3z01n said:

I'm really not getting the love for Leonard Floyd. I see the effort, but overall the guy plays soft. It's just a feeling I get, but I don't think he really wants to hit people. More that he'd rather be the third guy in on a tackle than the first guy. Watch the Alabama tape. He'd quit by the 3rd quarter. Just didn't want to tackle Derrick Henry anymore after Henry put him on his ass.

The upside is there, but he looks like he needs more time to develop before you put him in a major role.

Click to expand...

He sucks as a LB, but is polished as a pass rusher and explosive for his size. I think he'll have a Chris Clemons type career path.

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I don't see the explosion in his game. He wins mostly by speed and quickness. If a linemen gets a hand on him he's done cause he's not really a strong or physical player. Clemons was a SOB, Floyd doesn't have that in him yet. He plys too timid still. Maybe in the 2nd but not any earlier.

Recon_Hawk":13liyykn said:

I don't see the explosion in his game. He wins mostly by speed and quickness. If a linemen gets a hand on him he's done cause he's not really a strong or physical player. Clemons was a SOB, Floyd doesn't have that in him yet. He plys too timid still. Maybe in the 2nd but not any earlier.

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Maybe I'll chart it sometime later, but I remember him being a pressure machine against Vanderbilt. Of all the pass rushers this year, only Ogbah compete's with Floyd's 10 yard split.

In terms of explosiveness, his forty (4.60) was the best among this year's front line pass rushers and his 10 yard split (1.60) was only behind Ogbah (1.59). Floyd has pretty much the exact same measurements that Dion Jordan had a few years ago at nearly the same height. Jordan was a bust because teams used him wrong, but everyone agreed he was an explosive player.

As anything other than a pass rusher, I think Floyd sucks. I also have concerns over his love for the game. That said, I think he was miscast at Georgia. He's a bit of a finesse rusher but he has some rare qualities at pass rusher that make him worth the risk IMO. He's a better speed rush prospect than what you would usually see in the late 1st... guys like Dee Ford, etc.

I like Ogbah more, but if Seattle decides they want to roll the dice on Floyd, I'm on board.

Bud Dupree is a decent comparison for Floyd, and he went #22 last year. That's about where I think Floyd will go as well. I don't think he makes it to #26.

Change of topic , but with the other players on the first round list the more I watch of Derrick Henry the more I like. I watch his game and at times I'm amazed it's a 235 lb RB making those cuts. He's not a stop and go type RB, but is a good 1 cut runner, perfect for Seattle's zone running game. I'm not a fan of this years RB class, outside of a few, so I much more inclined to draft a big time RB early that guarantees a strong running game for the next 4 years.

Henry would be an awesome back for a team like Dallas that excels with athletic RBs and doesn't ask them to create. In fact, that's where I think he ends up, going to Dallas early in round 2.

For Seattle I think they need RB's who are quick, fast, and can feel blocks exceptionally well. Cable's system creates chaos by putting bodies on the ground all over the place. It's a system best served for an improvisational RB with quickness. My three favorite RBs for Seattle this year are Kenneth Dixon, Mashaun Coprich, and Jonathan Williams. All three are mid to late round picks which is another reason to like them since Seattle will probably address a few positions before getting around to RB.

Elliot is a good improvisational runner, but he'll be long gone before Seattle picks. Henry, though very impressive, seems too Turbinesque to work in Cable's system. Would it shock me if Seattle drafted him anyway? Not at all.