The strongest position group in the 2015 draft

kearly

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As everyone knows, the 2012 draft was famous for producing a great crop of QBs. The 2014 draft is regarded already as one of the best WR drafts of all time.

I think there is one position group this year that falls along those lines, and this year that group is RB.

I think JS not only agrees with me, but he's seen this coming from a couple years away. That's why Seattle was so contentious about extending Lynch before last season, and might also explain the rumors we heard early last season that suggested the team was planning to move on from Lynch early.

Now, with Lynch having (in my opinion) his best year ever as a pro, the team has wisely decided to at least attempt to lock up Lynch for a couple extra years. However, with Lynch having a quirky personality and a bad back, he has been non-committal about signing a reportedly generous extension offer. In a recent press conference, Schneider stressed the importance of Lynch making a decision soon. Why? Because he doesn't want to pass on future pro-bowl RBs in the first few rounds if Lynch backs out later.

The huge number of star potential RBs in this draft means that a few very good ones will reach the end of the second round, one of them may even reach Seattle's late 3rd round pick. If Lynch commits to a new contract tomorrow, then I think Seattle will mostly stand pat with what they've got. But if it's undecided on draft day, look for Seattle to take advantage of this draft class.

One guy I think Seattle is going to really have their hearts set on, quite possibly topping their board, is Jay Ajayi. Many RBs have been compared to Marshawn Lynch because they matched his size, physicality, or combine numbers, but none of those guys matched Lynch's "drunken master" style of improvisational running. Watch Ajayi on youtube, and you'll see the same mental style as Lynch. Lynch doesn't just break tackles because he's strong, he breaks tackles because of his balance and his intelligence. It's almost like Lynch hip checks tacklers. It's the same thing with Ajayi. He just has that same way of running with his feet side by side to keep maximum balance, and uses that balance (and his 220 pounds) to make broken tackles look easy.

The few times I've watched Ajayi at Boise State, he looked like the best player on their team without a doubt. I think he deserves to be a 1st rounder, but unless he kills the combine he's probably going to be a 2nd or 3rd round option in this loaded RB draft class.

If Seattle misses out on Ajayi, there are other good options. But I suspect Ajayi is on Seattle's short short list of players they don't want to walk out of the draft without, unless Lynch signs an extension first.
 

Natethegreat

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Couldn't agree more, I think he could be had at the end of round two and be an absolute steal for us there. His style of running would work perfect here.
 

hawknation2015

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Jay Ajayi did a lot of his damage against HS level front sevens. He also hasn't shown the discipline to run between the tackles. Does he have the quickness and footwork to be an NFL back? I'm not so sure.

I don't think Schneider was talking specifically about Ajayi when he was referring to the tremendous overall talent in this RB class -- Gurley, Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, T.J. Yeldon, Ajayi, Buck Allen, Mike Davis, etc.
 

theENGLISHseahawk

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Not a fan of Ajayi personally. The only comparison to Lynch I saw was the wide base and footwork. Too many spin moves, not enough power to work the middle or the speed to be a classic burner. In the first game against Ole Miss last year he was very 'meh' against a good defense.

For me it's a good deep class and there are players you can fit into your team who will do a job for you. But there's only two I'd take in the first round -- Gordon and Gurley. Gordon is going to be a star IMO. Gurley ditto if he can stay healthy.

The later round guy I really like is Josh Robinson. Fantastic backstory. Superb hands (big too, over ten inches), shifty, mobile, gritty. Looks like Michael Turner during the San Diego days.
 

hawknation2015

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theENGLISHseahawk":2fnkrvbp said:
Not a fan of Ajayi personally. The only comparison to Lynch I saw was the wide base and footwork. Too many spin moves, not enough power to work the middle or the speed to be a classic burner. In the first game against Ole Miss last year he was very 'meh' against a good defense.

For me it's a good deep class and there are players you can fit into your team who will do a job for you. But there's only two I'd take in the first round -- Gordon and Gurley. Gordon is going to be a star IMO. Gurley ditto if he can stay healthy.

The later round guy I really like is Josh Robinson. Fantastic backstory. Superb hands (big too, over ten inches), shifty, mobile, gritty. Looks like Michael Turner during the San Diego days.

I agree. Like Lynch, he does run with a wide base. He also runs with a lot of determination and flair. But I'm not seeing the explosiveness and instincts that Lynch possessed at Cal. Ajayi misses or ignores holes between the tackles and seems too eager to run outside . . . of course, that tends not to work in the NFL where defenses are faster. People who really understand the running game can see through this style of play.

But as they say, he does run with a lot of determination, and perhaps he could improve his foot speed and learn to read his blockers over time. If they get a 4th for Harvin, this might be where Ajayi could be taken with an eye toward his future development.
 
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kearly

kearly

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I don't think Gordon or Gurley are going to be in play for Seattle, but they are obviously very talented. Gordon will probably go top 10 and some team will feel that Gurley is worth the injury risk in the early 20s.

I am normally very skeptical of RBs from the Mountain West conference. I was never sold on Ryan Matthews and had tempered expectations for Robert Turbin, who I liked. That said, Ajayi had 1823 yards and 32(!) total TDs last season.

Against Ole Miss, he had 4.3 yards per carry, which is hardly terrible. In his final game, he faced Arizona as a heavy underdog and averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had 3 rushing TDs. Against UW and OSU in 2013 he had 4.0 and 4.2 YPC against two good run defenses. And against BYU that year he had 151 rushing yards with a 6.1 average. The 'worst' of those performances was against UW in one of his first starts ever, and in that game I thought he was very close to breaking out and UW was fortunate to contain him.

Keep in mind, the rest of the offense around him sucked. In their bowl game against Arizona, their entire game plan was basically to beat Arizona with Ajayi alone, and it worked.

To be sure, I am not saying he's Lynch 2.0. If he was that level of freak, he'd go top 10. But I do think he's basically 90% as good and comes the closest as any RB I've ever seen to finding a RB that replaces the super unique Lynch skillset.

By the way, did I mention he had 32 touchdowns last season? His TD per touch rate is the best that conference has seen in a very long time, better than Matthews who was drafted 12th overall in 2010.
 
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kearly

kearly

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hawknation2015":unsx79j7 said:
I don't think Schneider was talking specifically about Ajayi when he was referring to the tremendous overall talent in this RB class -- Gurley, Gordon, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, T.J. Yeldon, Ajayi, Buck Allen, Mike Davis, etc.

I don't either, I just think Ajayi is probably the leading option. That is unless Gurley or Gordon is sitting there at #31, which I'd give maybe a 1% chance of happening.
 

hawknation2015

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kearly":34k5dqk3 said:
I don't think Gordon or Gurley are going to be in play for Seattle, but they are obviously very talented. Gordon will probably go top 10 and some team will feel that Gurley is worth the injury risk in the early 20s.

I am normally very skeptical of RBs from the Mountain West conference. I was never sold on Ryan Matthews and had tempered expectations for Robert Turbin, who I liked. That said, Ajayi had 1823 yards and 32(!) total TDs last season.

Against Ole Miss, he had 4.3 yards per carry, which is hardly terrible. In his final game, he faced Arizona as a heavy underdog and averaged 6.1 yards per carry and had 3 rushing TDs. Against UW and OSU in 2013 he had 4.0 and 4.2 YPC against two good run defenses. And against BYU that year he had 151 rushing yards with a 6.1 average. The 'worst' of those performances was against UW in one of his first starts ever, and in that game I thought he was very close to breaking out and UW was fortunate to contain him.

Keep in mind, the rest of the offense around him sucked. In their bowl game against Arizona, their entire game plan was basically to beat Arizona with Ajayi alone, and it worked.

To be sure, I am not saying he's Lynch 2.0. If he was that level of freak, he'd go top 10. But I do think he's basically 90% as good and comes the closest as any RB I've ever seen to finding a RB that replaces the super unique Lynch skillset.

By the way, did I mention he had 32 touchdowns last season?

Air Force held him to 63 yards on 17 carries (3.7 yards per carry) with zero TDs in a 28-14 loss.

Edit- regarding why this is relevant, Ajayi tends to struggle reading runs between the tackles. Against a disciplined defense, that makes it hard for him to do his usual move of bouncing it outside.
 
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kearly

kearly

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So?

First off, you can't extrapolate a player based on one game. That's just common sense. Anyone can have an off game, of face an opponent who has a very good day. It's just one game. The Chargers made the LOB look like crap last year. Doesn't mean the Chargers are a GOAT offense, or that Seattle's pass defense sucks. Anything can happen in one game. Zac Stacy once rushed for 200 on Seattle's D. etc. I know you are a smart poster and aware enough to know this, so choosing such a flimsy argument strikes me as being argumentative.

Secondly, you can't just look at raw rush yardage per game in college and have it mean as much as you make it to be. There isn't any DVOA in college football that adjusts for quality of opponent in those rankings, and it's likely that Air Force's ranking has a lot to do with a historical lack of star RBs in that region.

But if you want to play that game, fine. I'll begin by pointing out that Air Force was not the best run defense he faced last year, Utah State was, a team who averaged 11 fewer rush yards allowed per game. And Utah State's run defense in 2013 was much much better than Air Force's 2014 run defense group, by about 32 yards a game. In that 2013 Utah State game against a team that finished 10th in the nation for run defense, Ajayi had 109 yards and a TD (5.0 per carry). In 2014, against another run defense that was better than Air Force, Ajayi had 229 yards (8.9 per carry) and FIVE rushing TDs.

Look over his career. Quality of defense is simply not a factor for Ajayi. He's been very consistent with an off day here and there, but he plays tough defenses and non-conference teams basically just as well as the weaker ones. Or at least within reasonable expectation. It's hard to run when the opponent knows that Ajayi is the only thing Boise State has to beat them with. And yet, he did exactly that.

I would agree that Ajayi is better off tackle, especially when he makes that same kind of cutback Lynch likes to make to double back the LBs. But he is still very good up the middle when it counts. You don't get to 28 rushing TDs in just one season if you can't succeed between the tackles.
 

hawknation2015

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kearly":1zs7ihqb said:
So?

First off, you can't extrapolate a player based on one game. That's just common sense. Anyone can have an off game, of face an opponent who has a very good day. It's just one game. The Chargers made the LOB look like crap last year. Doesn't mean the Chargers are a GOAT offense, or that Seattle's pass defense sucks. Anything can happen in one game. Zac Stacy once rushed for 200 on Seattle's D. etc. I know you are a smart poster and aware enough to know this, so choosing such a flimsy argument strikes me as being argumentative.

Secondly, you can't just look at raw rush yardage per game in college and have it mean as much as you make it to be. There isn't any DVOA in college football that adjusts for quality of opponent in those rankings, and it's likely that Air Force's ranking has a lot to do with a historical lack of star RBs in that region.

But if you want to play that game, fine. I'll begin by pointing out that Air Force was not the best run defense he faced last year, Utah State was, a team who averaged 11 fewer rush yards allowed per game. And Utah State's run defense in 2013 was much much better than Air Force's 2014 run defense group, by about 32 yards a game. In that 2013 Utah State game against a team that finished 10th in the nation for run defense, Ajayi had 109 yards and a TD (5.0 per carry). In 2014, against another run defense that was better than Air Force, Ajayi had 229 yards (8.9 per carry) and FIVE rushing TDs.

Look over his career. Quality of defense is simply not a factor for Ajayi. He's been very consistent with an off day here and there, but he plays tough defenses and non-conference teams basically just as well as the weaker ones. Or at least within reasonable expectation. It's hard to run when the opponent knows that Ajayi is the only thing Boise State has to beat them with. And yet, he did exactly that.

I would agree that Ajayi is better off tackle, especially when he makes that same kind of cutback Lynch likes to make to double back the LBs. But he is still very good up the middle when it counts. You don't get to 28 rushing TDs in just one season if you can't succeed between the tackles.

To clarify, I was pointing out a game of his that I watched where I felt he was not very consistent between the tackles against a disciplined defense.

If I wanted to point out a game where he simply stunk in terms of raw yardage, then I would have mentioned his game against UConn that I did not watch: 18 carries for 39 yards (2.2 yards per carry) with zero TDs.

I don't think you can say he was good between the tackles just because he has 28 rushing TDs, as most of those TDs appear to be outside runs. Do you have any specific examples of TDs he had up the gut? I would be interested to know more about those runs in particular.
 

Natethegreat

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I would just like to point out that although Lynch is an excellent runner between the tackles he also cuts it outside quite often as well. Pus Lynch wasn't all that great when he first got here as he had to learn the system as would Ajayi.
I just think his balance and base is very similar to Lynch and he would be well suited to our offense as Lynch is. Not only in the running game but he is also a very capable receiver. In fact he is one of the more well rounded backs coming out this year.
 

Scottemojo

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ImTheScientist":1yaiz1m8 said:
He is ok....I'm not a huge fan.

Kearlys Ajayi = kearlys Ryan Swope?
Who's your white whale, Ahab?
 

Hasselbeck

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Well you nailed the FO's interest in Christine Michael kearly.. so I sure won't doubt you.

I just hope they are much more enamored with Todd Gurley than Ajayi who to me.. just looks like a JAG.
 

bbsplitter

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I do like Ajayi, but with his fumble issues I would say he deserves to fall to our pick in the late second. Even then they would have to weigh the fumbles against his upside. He does have the same style as Lynch, but I don't think has anywhere near the same level of field vision as Lynch does. And lack of vision can get running backs in trouble in our system ie. Tom Cables supposed beef with Christine Michael.
 
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kearly

kearly

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ImTheScientist":1t67n9l8 said:
He is ok....I'm not a huge fan.

Kearlys Ajayi = kearlys Ryan Swope?

I know this is meant as a slam, but I actually agree. I think both are/were 2nd to 4th round prospects that I think had borderline 1st round talent. That said, it's kind of silly to slam me with this. It's not like Swope busted for performance reasons.
 
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kearly

kearly

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hawknation2015":4q3o6bn7 said:
To clarify, I was pointing out a game of his that I watched where I felt he was not very consistent between the tackles against a disciplined defense.

If I wanted to point out a game where he simply stunk in terms of raw yardage, then I would have mentioned his game against UConn that I did not watch: 18 carries for 39 yards (2.2 yards per carry) with zero TDs.

I don't think you can say he was good between the tackles just because he has 28 rushing TDs, as most of those TDs appear to be outside runs. Do you have any specific examples of TDs he had up the gut? I would be interested to know more about those runs in particular.

He scored from 56 out on his very first carry of the Arizona bowl game. Straight up the middle.

I could find many more examples. Nobody scores 28 rushing TDs in a season rushing off tackle only. Another argumentative foray from Hawknation. Instead of playing the lawyer, why don't you talk about football reasons why you don't like him? Something more than 'between the tackles' based on one of his few off games.

I'm not saying he's a future HoFer, I just think he fits what Seattle needs very well, I think he's going to be a priority target to keep in mind. JS has mentioned three players he didn't want to leave the draft without in the past, and two of those three guys were drafted in round 3 or later (Wilson and Willson). I think that's the kind of guy Ajayi is, a player Seattle will probably target at #63, or maybe #31 if they are in the mood for another James Carpenter type 1st round pick. They might even get him at in the 3rd round. I just think he's going to lead the charge for Seattle among the "2nd wave" of RBs. I think Seattle has no prayer of getting Gordon or Gurley.
 

hawknation2015

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kearly":28ulzvnt said:
hawknation2015":28ulzvnt said:
To clarify, I was pointing out a game of his that I watched where I felt he was not very consistent between the tackles against a disciplined defense.

If I wanted to point out a game where he simply stunk in terms of raw yardage, then I would have mentioned his game against UConn that I did not watch: 18 carries for 39 yards (2.2 yards per carry) with zero TDs.

I don't think you can say he was good between the tackles just because he has 28 rushing TDs, as most of those TDs appear to be outside runs. Do you have any specific examples of TDs he had up the gut? I would be interested to know more about those runs in particular.

He scored from 56 out on his very first carry of the Arizona bowl game. Straight up the middle.

I think you know what I'm going to say about this run . . . he wasn't touched once. That would have been a TD in two-hand touch football, which is more of an indictment of Arizona's porous defensive line than it is a tangible skill from Ajayi that will actually translate to the NFL level.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:12104472
 
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kearly

kearly

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There you go again.

It's okay to disagree, just kind of weak the way you do it. Very trollish.

He ran up the middle very well against Utah State last year.

I have not watched every game, and I do agree that he is better outside. He is not exactly like Lynch, but he shares some of Lynch's rarest strengths, namely, his ability in space of getting a LB to miss or slip off.
 

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