Bears Den — Week #18
Holy cow! The Texans won a miracle game and gave the Bears the #1 pick.
And then the Lions beat the Packers to get the Seahawks into the playoffs. Rodgers appears done.
This was all my dream scenario for yesterday.
Now, as predicted, the “trade down at all costs” enthusiasts have taken over the discussion on the Bears forum. As an example, here is what I posted after the game, along with the first response I got and my reply to his response…
Here is what the last 25 years of NFL history tells us what to expect when trading the #1 pick…
www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/what-bears-can-expect-potential-nfl-draft-trade-no-1-pick
Key take-aways:
1. It does not happen very often: 4 times in 25 years. Throw in the RG3 and Trey Lance deals, and that makes 6 times. That says there is a 75% probability that no trade down happens.
2. Only the RG3 and Lance trades netted 3 first round picks. That is a stupid trade, which is why 92% of the time it does not happen.
3. Bears might be able to get two firsts plus one or two lower round picks like in the Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers trade. But then you have to ask yourself, “How many GMs rate Bryce Young or Stroud as highly as they rated Rivers and Manning?”
4. One of these trades was not for a QB. It was Orlando Pace. Theoretically, a team like the Seahawks could move up and snatch Anderson or Carter.
5. Bears are not the only show in town. If Poles sets his price too high, a team could trade up with the Seahawks to get their target QB at a lower price.
6. If Poles trades down much lower than 4th, he can’t realistically expect to get Anderson or Carter. QBs go 1,2 and then Seahawks will probably take either Anderson or Carter. They can try for a QB with their other first round pick, if they roll with Geno for another year. I am betting that will happen. I know most of you guys don’t care much whether or not we get Anderson, but you should. I want THREE first round picks (i.e. a Trey Lance/RG3 deal) to drop out of range to get Anderson or Carter.
7. I am not trading with the Lions. They looked dangerous enough tonight beating the Packers without us helping them get a franchise QB. That could plague the Bears for the next 10 years. Not worth it. Besides, why on earth would they be stupid enough to offer a Trey Lance deal?
First trade down enthusiast reply and my responses (in bold)...
A few points:
1) Such trades are uncommon because the current situation is uncommon. Not very often does the #1 pick team have a young talented QB already in the fold. And some years there just aren't any good QBs worth drafting high (last year, for instance). In 2023, there will be at least 2 QBs taken in the top-5 and probably 3 in the top-10 or so.
Here is another way to look at it. Over the last 25 years, teams in the Bear’s position traded down 3 times. They did not trade down and drafted a non-QB 8 times (either because they did not want to trade down or could not get anybody to pay their price). That yields a 27% probability (3/11) that Poles trades down, and a 73% probability (8/11) that he does not.
2) I'm more interested in getting a PLAYER plus some picks then I am in getting "3 1sts". I'll take less to get a proven WR1 or Edge rusher, both of which we desperately need.
I agree. There are a couple guys on the Colts I would target, and Poles/Eberflus already have friendly relations with them.
3) I'm not gonna restrict myself to worrying about Anderson or Carter. They may be the top defensive prospects but they won't be the only good ones who can help us. I'm trading that pick and if that means moving down to #7 or #8 (Vegas & Atlanta), then so be it. We will still get a top-10 non-QB player in addition.
Depends on your evaluation. I believe there is a huge drop off in talent when you miss on Anderson, if he is the next Von Miller. We don't know for sure, but that would be my assumption going into the draft. Career 100+ sacks and excellent run defense.
4) Lions, Texans, Seahawks, and Eagles all have 2 FRPs. Only Eagles are truly set at QB. Goff and Geno are placeholders only.
Lions might be ready to move on from Goff, but I would not count on them giving us anything close to a Trey Lance deal. Find something else. Texans are already #2. They can get a QB without trading. Seahawks, like the Bears, have HUGE problems with the DL, and knowing their management, I think that is where they are going. They will roll with Geno for another year and/or try to draft their future franchise QB with their second pick in the first round. I spend a fair amount of time on the Seahawks forum.
Holy cow! The Texans won a miracle game and gave the Bears the #1 pick.
And then the Lions beat the Packers to get the Seahawks into the playoffs. Rodgers appears done.
This was all my dream scenario for yesterday.
Now, as predicted, the “trade down at all costs” enthusiasts have taken over the discussion on the Bears forum. As an example, here is what I posted after the game, along with the first response I got and my reply to his response…
Here is what the last 25 years of NFL history tells us what to expect when trading the #1 pick…
www.nbcsports.com/chicago/bears/what-bears-can-expect-potential-nfl-draft-trade-no-1-pick
Key take-aways:
1. It does not happen very often: 4 times in 25 years. Throw in the RG3 and Trey Lance deals, and that makes 6 times. That says there is a 75% probability that no trade down happens.
2. Only the RG3 and Lance trades netted 3 first round picks. That is a stupid trade, which is why 92% of the time it does not happen.
3. Bears might be able to get two firsts plus one or two lower round picks like in the Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers trade. But then you have to ask yourself, “How many GMs rate Bryce Young or Stroud as highly as they rated Rivers and Manning?”
4. One of these trades was not for a QB. It was Orlando Pace. Theoretically, a team like the Seahawks could move up and snatch Anderson or Carter.
5. Bears are not the only show in town. If Poles sets his price too high, a team could trade up with the Seahawks to get their target QB at a lower price.
6. If Poles trades down much lower than 4th, he can’t realistically expect to get Anderson or Carter. QBs go 1,2 and then Seahawks will probably take either Anderson or Carter. They can try for a QB with their other first round pick, if they roll with Geno for another year. I am betting that will happen. I know most of you guys don’t care much whether or not we get Anderson, but you should. I want THREE first round picks (i.e. a Trey Lance/RG3 deal) to drop out of range to get Anderson or Carter.
7. I am not trading with the Lions. They looked dangerous enough tonight beating the Packers without us helping them get a franchise QB. That could plague the Bears for the next 10 years. Not worth it. Besides, why on earth would they be stupid enough to offer a Trey Lance deal?
First trade down enthusiast reply and my responses (in bold)...
A few points:
1) Such trades are uncommon because the current situation is uncommon. Not very often does the #1 pick team have a young talented QB already in the fold. And some years there just aren't any good QBs worth drafting high (last year, for instance). In 2023, there will be at least 2 QBs taken in the top-5 and probably 3 in the top-10 or so.
Here is another way to look at it. Over the last 25 years, teams in the Bear’s position traded down 3 times. They did not trade down and drafted a non-QB 8 times (either because they did not want to trade down or could not get anybody to pay their price). That yields a 27% probability (3/11) that Poles trades down, and a 73% probability (8/11) that he does not.
2) I'm more interested in getting a PLAYER plus some picks then I am in getting "3 1sts". I'll take less to get a proven WR1 or Edge rusher, both of which we desperately need.
I agree. There are a couple guys on the Colts I would target, and Poles/Eberflus already have friendly relations with them.
3) I'm not gonna restrict myself to worrying about Anderson or Carter. They may be the top defensive prospects but they won't be the only good ones who can help us. I'm trading that pick and if that means moving down to #7 or #8 (Vegas & Atlanta), then so be it. We will still get a top-10 non-QB player in addition.
Depends on your evaluation. I believe there is a huge drop off in talent when you miss on Anderson, if he is the next Von Miller. We don't know for sure, but that would be my assumption going into the draft. Career 100+ sacks and excellent run defense.
4) Lions, Texans, Seahawks, and Eagles all have 2 FRPs. Only Eagles are truly set at QB. Goff and Geno are placeholders only.
Lions might be ready to move on from Goff, but I would not count on them giving us anything close to a Trey Lance deal. Find something else. Texans are already #2. They can get a QB without trading. Seahawks, like the Bears, have HUGE problems with the DL, and knowing their management, I think that is where they are going. They will roll with Geno for another year and/or try to draft their future franchise QB with their second pick in the first round. I spend a fair amount of time on the Seahawks forum.